173
FXXX12 KWNP 230031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2024 Sep 23 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels when new Region 3835 (S22E63,
Dao/beta) produced an M3.7/2n flare at 22/2139 UTC; the largest event of
the period. The remaining regions were either stable or in gradual
decay, and generally quiescent throughout the period. A CME associated
with the M3.7 flare is being analyzed for a possible Earth-directed
component.

.Forecast...
There is a chance for solar activity to reach moderate levels (R1-R2,
Minor-Moderate) on 23-25 Sep.

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak
flux of 2,340 pfu at 22/1435 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to reach high levels
on 23-25 Sep. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain
below warning threshold over 23-25 Sep.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were near background levels. Total magnetic field
strength was between 4-7 nT. No significant periods of Bz south were
observed. Solar wind speeds ranged from ~360-450 km/s. Phi angle
was in a predominately negative orientation.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters may increase above background levels on 25 Sep in
response to a positive polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is likely to be at quiet levels on 23-24 Sep.
Unsettled conditions are possible on 25 due to the anticipated influence
of a positive polarity CH HSS.