Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
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611 FXUS63 KDLH 261011 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 511 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Generally dry and cooler today after some morning showers. - Next system moves through the region starting late Thursday and lingering into the weekend. Potential for moderate to heavy rainfall at times and a chance for strong to severe storms Friday as well. - The pattern remains active to start the week with another system moving through before a potentially quieter period for midweek. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 511 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 A weak frontal boundary was draped across northern Minnesota early this morning with an area of showers and embedded thunder moving through the Minnesota Arrowhead. This activity is expected to slide to the south east this morning as high pressure builds in from the northwest bringing dry conditions by late morning. A few models do try to keep some shower activity across the region through the day, but increasingly dry air at the surface should limit this potential. Highs will be cooler than yesterday reaching into the upper 60s and lower 70s. High pressure will move over Lake Michigan by Thursday afternoon. Southerly winds on the backside of this high will begin to bring Gulf moisture into the region with PWATs nearing 1.75" which is over the 90th percentile for late June. An upper level trough will move out of the Rockies Thursday night into Friday and lift a warm front into the Upper Midwest. Models have been in fairly good agreement in lifting this warm front into northern Minnesota, roughly between the Iron Range and Borderlands Thursday night. This will lead to showers and thunderstorms starting Thursday night and continuing into Friday. As the low moves into the Red River Valley of the North Friday, it will drag a cold front into the region as well. Instability looks to be modest ahead of the cold front around 1000-2000 J/kg, but shear will be quite favorable for some supercells at 40-50 knots in the warm sector ahead of the cold front. However, ongoing convection may limit this potential and the best forcing looks to lag behind the front. Still, there will be a window during the afternoon and evening Friday where some strong to severe storms will be possible. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats, but heavy rainfall will also be a concern with the high PWATs in place. Flooding potential remains elevated as well with the saturated soils and existing high streamflows in the region. The low will kick off to the east on Saturday, but a trailing trough may keep showers and isolated thunder in place into Saturday evening before finally ending. Highs Thursday and Friday will be in the 60s and 70s before cooling into the 60s Saturday. Following a break on Sunday, another upper level trough will emerge from the Rockies Monday and move across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest into Tuesday. This will lead to more showers and storms across the region. There are hints at some strong to severe storms being possible along with more heavy rainfall per the CSU machine learning probs and SPC outlooks. Still a lot of time for this to change, but concern remains heightened with the recent flooding and continued high streamflows. Highs during this time frame will be in the 60s and 70s with 70s and lower 80s possible Tuesday ahead of the cold front. The pattern for the middle and latter part of the week looks to become less active, but with northwest flow aloft and surface high pressure across the eastern CONUS, would not be surprised if the pattern remains a bit more active with shortwaves propagating through the northwest flow regime. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1238 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 VFR conditions currently in place across the region with a weak cold front drifting to the south. Some MVFR ceilings will be possible in the wake of the front this morning with ceilings lifting back to VFR by late morning or early afternoon. There are very low chances (<10%) for a brief period of IFR ceilings at INL and HIB, but not seeing this in upstream obs. A few showers will be possible at INL and perhaps HIB. Winds will be northerly after sunrise at about 5 to 10 knots. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 511 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Easterly winds this morning may briefly gust to around 20 knots before becoming variable at around 10 knots or less by late morning as high pressure moves in. Winds will remain variable at around 10 knots or less into Thursday before becoming easterly at 5 to 10 knots Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Showers and a brief thunderstorm will be possible this morning before more chances arrive Thursday night and into Friday. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BJH AVIATION...BJH MARINE...BJH