Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
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111 FXUS63 KDLH 250950 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 450 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mainly dry today outside of some showers across the Borderlands. - Isolated showers and storms possible Wednesday. - Larger area of low pressure moves through the region late week with better rainfall chances. Additional rainfall chances heading into the new week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 450 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Quiet conditions were in place across the Northland this morning following the passage of a cold front and the strong to severe storms ahead of it. Heavy rainfall was observed across parts of northwest Wisconsin during the storms leading to reports of flash flooding. Skies have cleared out in the wake of the front with some pockets of fog as temperatures rapidly cool to the dewpoint. Skies will remain mainly clear through most of the day with clouds increasing late this afternoon and evening ahead of a secondary cold front/trough rotating south in association with low pressure east of Hudson Bay. This may bring a few light showers and maybe a rumble of thunder to areas along the International Border starting in the late afternoon hours and extend into the overnight hours. A shortwave trough embedded in northwest flow aloft will also push to the southeast Tuesday night into Wednesday. CAMs are bringing shower activity Tuesday night across the Brainerd Lakes region with this trough, but no strong or severe storms are expected. Highs today will top out in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Shower/storm chances will persist for Wednesday as the upper trough moves across the region. High pressure will be building in from the west and will likely bring an end to any shower/storm activity by midday with clearing skies for the afternoon and into Wednesday night. Temperatures will be cooler on Wednesday with highs in the 60s and lower 70s. As upper level ridging shifts across the Upper Midwest Thursday night into Friday, a shortwave trough will move through the Rockies and lead to cyclogenesis across the northern High Plains Thursday night into Friday. With the Northland on the backside of the departing high pressure, Gulf moisture will move northward into the region. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible starting late Thursday and remain possible into Friday. Some strong to severe storms may be possible Friday ahead of the cold front, but timing and ongoing convection may limit the threat. Moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible with PWATs approaching 1.5". This will have to be watched with saturated soils and high streamflows currently in place. Highs both days will be in the 70s with some 60s possible on Friday given extensive cloud cover and possible rainfall in the area. Some showers may linger for Saturday on the backside of the departing low before high pressure moves in for Saturday night into Sunday. Additional rain chances will then return early in the new week with shortwaves moving through a quasi-zonal flow pattern. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 103 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Showers and thunderstorms will clear northwest Wisconsin over the next few hours. Mainly clear skies are expected to follow over the next few hours as a cold front works through the region. VFR conditions will then persist through the remainder of the period. Biggest concern for the period will be northwesterly winds gusting to 20-25 knots for much of the day before diminishing around sunset. Some clouds return late in the period with some showers possible at INL by the late evening hours, but confidence too low to include at this time. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 450 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Westerly winds will increase today to 10 to 15 knots with gusts to 20 to 25 knots in the wake of a cold front. This will lead to conditions hazardous to small craft beginning late this morning and continuing into this evening when winds veer northeasterly and diminish to 15 knots or less. Small Craft Advisories are in effect. A brief uptick in winds will be possible from around sunrise Wednesday through mid-morning with gusts to 20 knots possible at the head of the lake before diminishing through the remainder of the day and overnight to 15 knots or less as high pressure builds in. Isolated showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will be possible tonight through mid-morning Wednesday, but no strong or severe storms are expected. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for LSZ121-140>148-150. && $$ DISCUSSION...BJH AVIATION...BJH MARINE...BJH