967
FXUS63 KDVN 080526
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1226 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible
  tonight, after midnight and mainly south of Interstate 80.
  Severe storms are not expected.

- Temperatures will be at or slightly below normal through
  Tuesday with precipitation also below normal. A warming trend
  begins Wednesday onward.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

High pressure stretches from northwest Iowa southeastward into
Arkansas. Clouds are streaming into the area from a storm system
to our northwest There was deeper mixing again today with
northwest winds of 10 to 20 MPH with gusts up to 35 MPH.
Temperatures at 2 PM ranged from 78 degrees at Independence to
85 degrees at Macomb. Relative humidities this afternoon 20 to
30 percent.

There are weak returns on radar across northern and central
Iowa this afternoon. This area has been weakening with time
with limited rain reports in area METARS. Think that there is a
chance of sprinkles late this afternoon west of a Manchester to
Cedar Rapids but confidence is low due to lots of dry air in
place amd the weakening trends in the precipitation. Not sure
if raindrops will survive to the surface. There is a low chance
of gusty winds with any showers but precipitation would need to
increase intensity for this to occur.

Two disturbances are forecast to move to our north and south
tonight into Saturday morning. Models show precipitation
spreading into the area from each disturbance after 06 UTC and
slowly spreading across the area through 12 UTC. The best
chances for showers and storms are forecast to be south of
Interstate 80 tonight and Saturday morning. Showers and storms
will come to an end from west to east late morning into the
early afternoon. The heaviest rainfall amounts of up to a
quarter of an inch are possible in far northeast Missouri and
adjacent areas of west central Illinois. High temperatures were
lowered slightly for Saturday and range from the lower 70s along
the Highway 20 corridor to around 80 south of a Memphis
Missouri to Macomb Illinois line.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

The GFS continues to be a outlier handling the upper flow for Sunday
through Monday again tonight, as it cuts off an upper low, bringing
rain though Iowa mainly on Monday ahead, but this feature is not
included in other guidance, but is a more typical passing waves in
northwest flow through the week. Our forecast now has some slight
pops Monday, but otherwise does not lean into the aggressive cut off
low of the GFS. The NBM mean QPF remains under 0.10 for that period.

This northwest flow period is expected to last well into the week
ahead, with gradually building heat into the region as well. This
pattern could eventually favor some stong MCS activity, but that
will need to wait until both heat and moisture are in place, and for
now, we are not seeing much for low level moisture until Thursday
and Friday when dewpoint forecasts exceed 60F.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024


High based showers will continue to move through southeast Iowa
overnight, most of this activity will be virga, but some
raindrops will reach the ground near BRL at times. Otherwise,
dry air at lower levels will keep our area VFR through sunrise.
Another passing wave of energy should bring more showers to
areas north of Interstate 80 this morning, as a cold front
sweeps through, changing winds to northwest by early afternoon.
Models are showing MVFR conditions widespread all day, but with
so much dry air at low levels, this seems too aggressive, and
looking upstream in MN and the rest of the upper Midwest, there
are no low cigs anywhere, so this is enough to forecast a VFR
TAF, but I have left a scattered 2500 ft layer in all areas this
morning for the frontal passage as suggestion that we could see
a lower cig, but again, it seems unlikely to happen.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cousins
LONG TERM...Ervin
AVIATION...Ervin