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Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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170 ACUS01 KWNS 251940 SWODY1 SPC AC 251939 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Damaging wind gusts and large hail are possible across parts of the central/southern Great Plains and Midwest into this evening. ...20z Update... The ongoing outlook remains on track. Only minor adjustments were made to the Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk in South Dakota to account for current trends where convection is developing. Other changes were made to the 10 percent general thunderstorm line based on latest observations and trends. For more details, refer to previous outlook discussion below. For short term severe potential across portions of SD reference MCD 1410. ..Leitman.. 06/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024/ ...OH Valley... A large but weakening MCS is spreading southeastward across parts of OH/IN/IL, with a broken line of strong cells along the leading line. The western flank of this activity over IL may intensify by mid afternoon, spreading into parts of eastern MO and southern IL/IN, posing a risk of damaging wind gusts and hail. ...IA/MO/NE... Farther west, a hot, humid air mass is present today across much of MO, southern IA, and eastern NE. Widely scattered intense thunderstorms are expected to form later this afternoon - mainly along a boundary from southern IA into eastern NE. These storms would be in a sufficiently sheared environment for supercell structures capable of very large hail and damaging winds. Storms are expected to sag southward through the evening. Models differ on evolution of storms overnight, with some solutions suggesting a larger MCS building into southern MO by the end of the period. ...SD/NE... An axis of southeasterly low-level winds and dewpoints in the mid 60s to 70s extends from the Black Hills region into southeast SD and central NE. Strong heating in this area will result in ample CAPE, leading to scattered afternoon and evening storms. Steep mid-level lapse rates and moderately strong west-northwest flow aloft will promote supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado. $$