Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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267 ACUS01 KWNS 261621 SWODY1 SPC AC 261619 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC...ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible today into tonight from the Ohio Valley into northern Mid Atlantic, across parts of the Ozark Plateau into lower Mississippi Valley, and to the lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains. ...NY/PA into Mid Atlantic and southern New England... Morning water vapor imagery shows a fast-moving trough over WI. This feature will track across the Great Lakes region today and into the northeast states tonight. Ahead of the system, strong heating is occurring from parts of NY/PA eastward into the Mid Atlantic region and southern New England. A diffuse surface boundary extends from northern PA to coastal New England, with temperatures likely to rise into the 80s/90s to the south. This will result in an environment of steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient CAPE for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Current indications are that storms will form over OH/western PA by early afternoon and spread eastward through the day. Damaging winds appear to be the main concern. Storms may track across southern New England and to the NJ/DE/MD coast during the evening with a continued severe threat. ...High Plains... A plume of considerable mid-level moisture is present today over the central Rockies. This will lead to scattered thunderstorms over the higher terrain by mid afternoon, spreading eastward into the adjacent plains. Easterly low-level winds over the plains will maintain 40s/50s dewpoints and pose a risk of a few severe storms capable of hail and gusty/damaging winds this evening. ...ArklaTex into TN... A weakening linear MCS currently extends from northeast TX into northeast AR. The air mass ahead of this activity is very moist/unstable, with dewpoints in the mid 70s and afternoon MLCAPE values likely 2000-2500 J/kg. Winds aloft are rather weak, but will maintain ongoing SLGT area in case these storms rejuvenate. ..Hart/Halbert/Weinman.. 06/26/2024 $$