Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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172 ACUS01 KWNS 271614 SWODY1 SPC AC 271612 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF UT AND WESTERN CO... ...SUMMARY... The greatest severe-thunderstorm threat is over parts of the northern/central High Plains this afternoon and evening, where very large hail, significant damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are possible. ...Western MT into Eastern Great Basin... Morning water vapor loop shows an impressive shortwave trough rotating across the northwest states. This feature will result in strengthening winds aloft across much of the Great Basin and northern Rockies today, along with increasing large scale forcing for ascent. This will lead to scattered thunderstorms over the higher terrain of western MT into parts of WY/CO/UT by early afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient westerly flow/shear through the cloud-bearing layer to support organized and occasionally supercell storms capable of hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Eastern MT into the Dakotas... As convection spreads off the higher terrain into eastern MT, storms will encounter greater low level moisture/shear, further promoting supercell structures and the risk of very large hail and perhaps a few tornadoes. These storms will progress eastward through the afternoon/evening into the Dakotas, where upscale growth into bowing structures is anticipated - capable of significant damaging winds. ...Central Plains... Farther south, forcing will be weaker and convective coverage should be less. However, convection will intensify as outflows from the High Plains spread eastward into the moist axis, with a combination of bowing and supercell storms expected. Damaging winds are probably the main risk, but substantial low level and deep layer shear could support large hail and a tornado or two in this region as well. ...Carolinas/GA... A very moist and unstable air mass is present today from central/eastern NC southwestward into eastern GA. Scattered mid and high clouds will somewhat mitigate afternoon heating. But a few strong/severe storms are expected, with water-loaded downdrafts capable of locally damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Weinman.. 06/27/2024 $$