Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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980 ACUS01 KWNS 231947 SWODY1 SPC AC 231945 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND AND FAR EAST NY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY IN NORTHEAST MT/NORTHWEST ND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes remain possible across parts of the Northeast and New England, with additional severe storms expected across the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic region, as well as the Northern High Plains. ...20Z Update... Only appreciable categorical change with this outlook has been to begin reducing severe risks behind the cold front in OH to the MS/OH River confluence. Otherwise, have maintained the rest of the categorical severe as-is. Please see MCD 1385 for short-term forecast information across parts of the Northeast. ..Grams.. 06/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024/ ...New England... Visible satellite imagery shows broken clouds across central/eastern NY and parts of southern/western New England, where dewpoints are in the upper 60s to lower 70s. This is resulting in rapid destabilization of the air mass, with a corridor of ~2000 J/kg and little inhibition. This should lead to scattered thunderstorm development early this afternoon over central/eastern NY, tracking rapidly eastward into VT/NH and northern MA. Forecast soundings show substantial vertical shear in this region, as storms develop beneath the mid-level jet axis. A remnant surface boundary currently extends from northeast VT into northeast MA. As storms interact with this boundary, locally enhanced low-level shear may result in a more focused risk for a few tornadoes. Otherwise, damaging wind gusts and some hail are the main threats. ...Upper OH Valley... An axis of warm/humid conditions is present today from KY northeastward into western PA, where temperatures will warm through the 80s with dewpoints in the lower 70s. Model guidance suggests at least widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms will form. Relatively steep low level lapse rates, significant water-loaded downdrafts, and favorably strong low/mid level wind fields will pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts in the stronger cells through the afternoon and early evening. ...MT/ND... Model guidance continues to show the potential for a supercell storm or two to form over southern Manitoba and track near/across the international border, affecting parts of northeast MT and northwest ND tonight - mainly after dark. Sufficient CAPE/shear parameters would support a risk of large hail in these storms. $$