Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
326 ACUS02 KWNS 160545 SWODY2 SPC AC 160543 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Monday over much of the northern Plains toward the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... On Monday, strong southwest flow aloft will extend from the Great Basin into the northern Plains and upper MS Valley, with an early lead wave over MN and the primary trough over the Pacific Northwest. Height rises will occur over much of the northern Plains during the day, before cooling aloft spreads east across the northern Rockies and High Plains late. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will remain over the East. At the surface, low pressure will form over WY and CO, with a warm front from NE into southern MN and northern WI by 00Z. South of this front, mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will be common. Overnight, a cold front will push east across the Dakotas and toward central NE, as warming continues north across the upper MS Valley. The surface low will translate northeast from CO toward ND by 12Z Tue. ...Northern Plains and upper MS Valley... Early day storms and rain are expected from eastern SD across MN and into northern WI and upper MI, with a gradual decrease in coverage throughout the day. This activity will be well north of the warm front, and rain cooled air could reinforce the boundary for much of the day. By late afternoon, an unstable air mass along and south of this front may lead to renewed development, and a few storms could produce gusty winds or marginal hail. Additional storms are likely down the dryline into southwest NE into western KS where low-level lapse rates will be steep. Locally large hail or strong winds will be possible. During the evening and overnight, a greater threat of strong to severe storms may materialize as the warm front surges north along with southerly 850 mb winds increasing to 60 kt over a broad area. In addition the low-level moisture flux, the surging cold front will add lift, with the end result areas of storms capable of hail and locally damaging gusts. A greater severe risk than forecast for damaging winds may exist along the boundary, especially if it moves farther north than forecast with earlier air mass recovery. ..Jewell.. 06/16/2024 $$