183
ACUS02 KWNS 271736
SWODY2
SPC AC 271735

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Widespread strong to severe storms are expected over much of Texas
on Tuesday, with potential for significant damaging wind and areas
of very large hail.

..Most of Central and Northern Texas...southern OK...
A large area of moisture and instability will be in place Tuesday
morning across the southern Plains, especially south of a stationary
front extending from the TX Panhandle across the Red River and into
the ArkLaTex. Early day storms are expected due to substantial
elevated instability across southern OK, and these may produce hail.
An initial cluster/MCS may evolve out of this activity as it
reinforced the boundary and moves into northern TX and perhaps as
far as LA.

South of the boundary, a very most and unstable air mass will exist
with steep midlevel lapse rates beneath modest westerly flow aloft.
Heating will lead to developing along a dryline over western TX,
perhaps into far eastern NM, with a few large supercells producing
damaging hail expected. As these cells progress east/southeast, and
the main front shifts south, a focused corridor of damaging wind
potential will develop into central TX.

Given the degree of instability, favorable lapse rates aloft,
sufficient westerly flow and strong model signal, several wind gusts
over 80 mph are anticipated across the Enhanced Risk area as storms
evolve into a highly organized MCS. These systems typically progress
farther than depicted in model output, and therefore probabilities
have been shunted eastward with lower probs to the TX Coast. Further
details will be worked out in the Day 1 outlook.

...Northern ID/Western MT...
A strong shortwave trough will move east across the region, with
southwest midlevel flow around 50 kt. A surface trough/wind shift
will develop into ID and western MT during the afternoon, with
strong heating resulting in very steep lapse rates through a deep
layer. The end result should be scattered convection developing
after 21Z from far northeast OR across the central mountains of ID
and into western MT. A few small bowing structures appear likely
producing locally severe gusts, and some hail cannot be ruled out
although overall shear will be marginal.

..Jewell.. 05/27/2024

$$