312
ACUS03 KWNS 060717
SWODY3
SPC AC 060717

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE
OZARK PLATEAU...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from the central High
Plains across southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma into the Ozark
Plateau on Saturday.

...Synopsis...
A low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly
southeastward from the Upper Midwest across the Upper Great Lakes
and OH Valley on Saturday before then continuing eastward across the
Northeast late Saturday night/early Sunday morning. Surface low
attendant to this shortwave will likely be over the northeast
IA/southeast MN vicinity early Saturday before progressing quickly
eastward across the northern portions of the OH Valley, reaching the
northern Mid-Atlantic by early Sunday. As the surface low moves
eastward, an associated cold front will push southward across the
central Plains and Mid MS Valley and southeastward through much of
the OH Valley.

At least moderate low-level moisture is expected to be in place
ahead of this cold front from KS and OK into the Lower MO Valley and
Ozark Plateau. Upslope flow into the central High Plains will likely
support thunderstorm development across eastern CO (particularly
southeast CO) during the late afternoon. Moderate deep-layer
vertical shear will likely support organized storm structures, with
hail as the primary risk. Low-level flow veering with height is
expected to be strong enough to support a tornado or two with any
surface-based storms.

Farther east into southeast KS/northeast OK and the Ozark Plateau,
moderate to strong buoyancy is expected to develop by the late
afternoon, fostered by dewpoints in the low 70s and temperatures in
the mid to upper 80s. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along
the front pushing south into the region as well as along a possible
outflow boundary, remnant from Friday night/Saturday morning storms
over the Lower MO Valley. Moderate deep-layer shear will combine
with the strong buoyancy to support robust updrafts capable of large
hail and damaging gusts. However, there is uncertainty regarding
frontal timing as well as the effects of the early morning showers
and thunderstorms. These uncertainties preclude introducing higher
than Marginal/5% probabilities with this outlook, although higher
probabilities may be needed in later outlooks once the forecast
details are better resolved.

..Mosier.. 06/06/2024

$$