892
FXUS63 KEAX 300516
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1216 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet weather over the weekend, with temperatures cooling
  tomorrow.

- Heat and humidity return by Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

A cold frontal boundary draped across northwestern MO has
progressed into a mostly stationary boundary, generating
persistent low level cloud cover across much of eastern KS and
northwest MO throughout the day. Temperatures have remained
cooler in the wake of northerly winds, with an exiting upper
level trough introducing a building ridge to the south and
surface high pressure co-located over the Dakotas/MT. Winds will
gust going further into the afternoon as afternoon mixing takes
place, before calming into the evening. Any further
precipitation should remain south overnight as the boundary
progresses southward during the rest of the day today.

Tomorrow, temperatures will cool further under dry, northeasterly
flow as the surface high moves off towards the east. High
temperatures will remain around the mid to upper 70s for much
of the area. By Monday, winds will turn towards the southeast
as the surface high traverses towards the Great Lakes. With the
gradual progression of this high and the continued building of
the upper level ridge over the southern CONUS, higher
temperatures and humidity return by Tuesday. Predominantly
southwesterly flow throughout the atmosphere will generate WAA
that will help moist air from the Gulf penetrate through the
central US. This additional moisture coupled with rising
temperatures will help heat indices return to 100-110 degF for
much of the region. Headlines may be needed going into Tuesday
with further forecaster discretion.

Aside from the heat concerns, another risk for severe weather
exists Tuesday evening with the passage of a circling shortwave
around an upper level trough in the northern Great Lakes. Due to
how far in the future this forecast is, specific details remain
uncertain. However, with indications of sufficient shear and
lift, the formation of storms with this passing shortwave remain
possible. For the remainder of the next week, the gradual
degradation of the upper level ridge and embedded shortwaves
within its flow suggests more opportunities for precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

VFR conditions are expected for the duration of the TAF
period. Winds will come from a northerly direction with an
occasional gust to 12 mph.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...Collier