123
FXUS63 KEAX 290854
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
354 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A nice weekend ahead with limited rain chances and milder
  temperatures.

- Very hot and humid conditions expected to return next Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 353 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

In the upper levels, there is a ridge to our south and troughing to
our north over MN. A branch of the jet max rounds the base with
winds up to 100 knots. At the surface, the surface low is to our
northeast. The associated boundary has moved to our southeast,
shifting our winds to the north. This will allow for slightly cooler
temperatures as cooler air pushes in from the north. A potential for
increased low cloud coverage exists with the approaching shortwave
from 09Z-12Z. The GFS is forecasting under 1,000 foot cloud bases,
however this model run has been overly aggressive with cloud cover.
Another shortwave behind the boundary has lead to the development of
showers and storms in Kansas. These storms are expected to move into
the area later this morning. No strong or severe storms are
forecasted at this time. Once these showers move out of the area,
conditions should stay relatively dry for majority of the region.
Slight chances for rain persist for the most southern portions of
our area.

Sunday, northerly winds persist as a ridge builds into the area from
the northwest. As a result, cooler, drier air pushes into the region
with dew point temperatures in the low to mid 50s and high
temperatures in the upper 70s.

For the start of next week, winds will shift to a westerly direction
as the ridge moves to our northeast. High temperatures will be
slightly warmer than Sunday`s, but should still be enjoyable.
Tuesday, as the ridge continues to move east, we eventually set up
southerly wind flow allowing us to advect warm, moist air from
the south. This increase in warmer air and moisture could
potentially lead to the issuance of a heat advisory for most of
the region. We will continue to monitor these conditions to
determine if heat headlines are necessary. The next chance for
significant precipitation comes Tuesday night into Wednesday
where some strong storms may be possible. At this time, strong
winds and hail seem to be the primary threats. More information
on these potential storms to come.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Winds will slowly shift to the north with occasional gust to 12
knots during the day. There is a chance for some low ceilings from
09Z-12Z however, left out of the TAF due to low confidence.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...Collier