033
FXUS63 KEAX 270642
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
142 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower and thunderstorm chances late tonight through Friday
  morning. Widespread 0.50 to 1.00 inches of rain with locally
  higher amounts possible.

- Slight risk of severe storms and moderate to heavy rainfall
  from thunderstorms Friday evening into early Saturday morning.

- Looking well ahead, slight risk of excessive heat and
  humidity for Fourth of July.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 141 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Through 06Z, surface ridge axis has built south-southeast along the
lower Missouri Valley. Much cooler and dryer air has settled across
the area, with a rather pleasant summer morning on the horizon.
Morning lows will dip into the upper 60s to around 70 F. WV imagery
reveals the mid-level ridge spread across the southwestern CONUS
quite well, with an onshore mid-level trough entering the Pacific
Northwest. In response, we`ll see a flattening of the ridge centered
over the Rockies, spanning from the lower Mississippi to the desert
southwest through the day. Also visible in WV currently are a series
of potential short wave disturbances traversing the primary flow.
Short to mid range solutions eject one of these short waves across
the central plains later this afternoon into the evening toward the
region. At the surface, the trailing Pacific Front will emerge
across the Rockies through the evening, supplying modest mid-level
moisture which will help kick off scattered convection late in the
evening, likely after 8 to 9 PM CDT. Precip will increase in
coverage after midnight and through Friday morning as the boundary
layer is modified by more sufficient WAA from the Gulf and the
surface boundary lifts toward the region. Widespread rainfall totals
will range from around a half inch to an inch through Friday
morning, with locally higher amounts in storms possible.

Friday, we`ll potentially see a decrease in rainfall through the
afternoon and early evening, with chances greatest along and north
of US-36. Into the evening, the developing surface low over the
western high plains will push east with the influence of a compact
H500 short wave entering the Dakotas. With a weak surface low
centering over the lower Missouri Valley near NE/IA through the
evening, redevelopment of thunderstorms is expected along this
boundary, likely developing into a loosely organized complex working
with 3000 to 4000 J/Kg of MUCAPE across northeastern Kansas and
northwestern Missouri through Midnight. Early MCS maintenance
parameters such as 0-3km shear, hint at organization and forward
propagation south and southeast through early Saturday morning. This
will bring another notable shot a precipitation to the region.
Widespread 0.50 to 1.50 additional inches cannot be ruled out and
given the convective nature, locally higher amounts can be expected.

The synoptic pattern remains rather messy, but surface ridging
should follow through Saturday, building in from the northwest. This
will bring a return to more seasonable temps and rather quiet
conditions for mid to late Saturday into Sunday. Although low end
PoPs remain for the Ozarks and southward as an east-west boundary
hangs up and maintains a focus for scattered precip chances through
the weekend.

Beyond the weekend, the pattern remains active, with near daily
chances for summertime convection and periods of heat and humidity.
It wouldn`t be the week of July Fourth without some scattered storm
chances and highs in the 90s and heat index values around 100 to 105
F.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Light
and variable winds this morning will increase and become more
southeast through midday. Late in the period, widely scattered
showers may begin to traverse the terminals, with better overall
precipitation chances beyond the current period. Will handle
with VCSH mention for now around 28/03Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 631 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Multiple points along the MO River are in minor to moderate
flood stage. These elevated stages are expected to last through
mid to late next week depending on future rainfall totals around
the region. Please visit our local river forecast page at
water.noaa.gov/wfo/eax to view the latest forecasts. Note that
forecasted river stages and timing may be significantly affected
by updated information and additional rainfall around the
region.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kurtz
AVIATION...Kurtz
HYDROLOGY...Pesel