839
FXUS63 KEAX 261715
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1215 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler and mostly dry conditions through Thursday.

- Thunderstorm chances return Thursday night through Saturday
  morning. Severe weather and locally heavy rainfall are
  possible, particularly on Friday.

- Hot and humid conditions may settle into the region leading up
  to the Fourth of July (around a 70 percent chance).

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Low clouds have been stubborn to erode in portions of the area
so far today, leading to temperatures being a little cooler than
forecast. However, expect sky cover to improve this afternoon,
so current forecast is on track for now.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 157 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Surface ridging will build in gradually today, with a reprieve
from the hot and humid conditions we`ve had, with more
seasonable highs, in the mid to upper 80s. Mid-level ridging
will build over the West, with surface high pressure continue
to settle into Thursday morning. A subtle short wave trough
traversing the ridge will bring increased chances for
precipitation Thursday night into Friday. A general weakening of
the H500 ridge over the southern Plains will result in
increased return flow through Friday and the Weekend, with off
and on chances for showers and storms through Saturday.

Looking far ahead, the week of July Fourth looks hot and humid. July
second and third could see heat index values approaching advisory
criteria.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Low clouds have settled into the TAF sites this morning, and
sub-VFR has been stubborn to improve as of midday. Expect
gradual improvement to VFR this afternoon with CIGs scattering
with time as well. VFR should then prevail through tomorrow,
although cannot rule out some localized fog near daybreak
Thursday (around a 20 percent chance; higher at STJ, where a
TEMPO VSBY restriction was added to the TAF). North winds around
10 kt with an occasional gust to 20 kt should veer to northeast
or east-northeast tonight and then to the southeast on Thursday,
with speeds generally 5 to 10 kt after sunset this evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 352 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Areas upstream of the MO River have received several inches of
rainfall in recent days. Runoff from these rains is funneling
into the MO River and should make its way downstream over the
next several days. Forecasts anticipate some areas reaching
minor to moderate flood stage towards the end of the week.
Please visit our local river forecast page at
water.noaa.gov/wfo/eax to view updated forecasts. Note that
forecasted river stages and timing may be significantly
affected by updated information and additional rainfall around
the region.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CMS
DISCUSSION...Kurtz
AVIATION...CMS
HYDROLOGY...Pesel