383
FXUS63 KEAX 261115
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
615 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Complex of thunderstorms through Sunrise. Severe Winds Possible.

- Thunderstorm Chances Thursday into Friday.

- Periods of Hot and Humid conditions late week and next week,
  including July Fourth.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 609 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

The mesoscale convective system is moving out of the CWA at this
time, and the severe thunderstorm watch has been canceled for
all counties in our forecast area. Will clean up the near-term
forecast in the next couple of hours as the precipitation shifts
to our southeast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 157 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

This will be a quick discussion as ongoing severe convection has our
primary focus. As of 1 AM, a line of storms continues to advance
southward across northwestern and central Missouri, racing toward
the lower Missouri valley by 2 to 3 AM. A second complex of storms
is developing in eastern Nebraska and is expected to track southeast
into northeastern Kansas and western Missouri behind this first
line. The current line of storms has become unbalanced on it`s
western Flank, north of the KC Metro area, with it`s gust front
well, nearly 10 to 20 miles, ahead of the actual convection. The
eastern flank has maintained balance and therefore continues to put
down reports of severe wind from near Chillicothe to western Macon
County. Additional storms have maintained along the KS/MO Missouri
Valley, with reports of 60 mph wind gusts. This activity appears
anchored nearer a surface boundary. Overall, this first MCS is
working with copious amounts of MUCAPE, over 3000 J/Kg and forward
prop Corfidi Vectors line up well with 0-3km shear, suggesting
continued forward propagation southward toward the Ozarks through
the early morning. Even with the progressive motion, there remains
concern for localized flooding, with several locations receiving
probably 3 to 4 inches of rainfall.

Looking to the northwest to Nebraska, as mentioned above, the
eastern nebraska complex of storms will be tracking southeast
trailing the current activity. Out ahead, it`s working with 3500 to
4000 J/Kg of MUCAPE, real classic MCS ingredients in place, with
shear - cold balance maintaining right now in southeast Nebraska.
Honestly, it`s looking like it will follow the traditional 1000-
500mb thickness contours right along the axis of greatest MUCAPE
across northeastern Kansas and into the KC Metro Area through 3 to 4
AM. With that said, there is a lot of uncertainty in how the current
environment will be modified by the first round of storms. Overall,
given trends, storms will continue to build southward and wind will
remain the primary concern. The system appears progressive enough
the flooding risk will remain rather local, but any slowdown, we
could end up with training storms and increased risk of flash
flooding.

Precipitation should end by late morning, through 10 AM to the south
and southeast. Surface ridging will build in gradually behind, with
a reprieve from the hot and humid conditions we`ve had, with more
seasonable highs, in the mid to upper 80s. Mid-level ridging will
build over the mountain west, with surface high pressure continue to
settle into Thursday morning. A subtle short wave trough traversing
the ridge will bring increased chances for precipitation Thursday
night into Friday. A general weakening of the H500 ridge over the
southern Plains will result in increased return flow through Friday
and the Weekend, with off and on chances for showers and storms
through Saturday.

Looking far ahead, the week of July Fourth looks hot and humid. July
second and third could see heat index values approaching advisory
criteria.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 609 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Convection has moved off to the southeast of the terminals early
this morning; however, winds will continue to be influenced this
morning by the mature convective system, with east winds
gradually becoming north or northeast late this morning. Speeds
around 10 kt with occasional gusts to 20 kt are expected this
afternoon, with a gradual diminishing trend overnight. CIGs
today will be mostly VFR, although cannot rule out a brief
period of MVFR this morning (around a 25 percent chance). VFR is
expected to prevail this afternoon through tonight.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 352 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Areas upstream of the MO River have received several inches of
rainfall in recent days. Runoff from these rains is funneling
into the MO River and should make its way downstream over the
next several days. Forecasts anticipate some areas reaching
minor to moderate flood stage towards the end of the week.
Please visit our local river forecast page at
water.noaa.gov/wfo/eax to view updated forecasts. Note that
forecasted river stages and timing may be significantly
affected by updated information and additional rainfall around
the region.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CMS
DISCUSSION...Kurtz
AVIATION...CMS
HYDROLOGY...Pesel