664
FXUS63 KEAX 281714
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1214 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Potential for strong to severe storms this afternoon through
  tonight with heavy rainfall being the primary concern.

- Very hot and humid conditions expected to return next Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

In the upper levels, ridging remains through central CONUS with
troughing on the backside of the ridge over the Montana/Canada
border. There is a jet max rounding the base of the trough with
winds as high as 110 knots. In the mid levels, the troughing has
reflected down and extended as far south as northern Texas. Out
ahead of the trough at 700mb, RH values have exceeded 70% for
eastern Kansas/western Missouri. This suggests some lift out ahead
of the mid level trough. There has been enough lift to where a few
rounds of showers and storms have developed and moved east across
the region. At this time, heavy rainfall and some gusty conditions
seem to be the main threats. These showers and storms are likely to
linger across the area through the morning. Severe storms are not
expected at this time, however, we will continue to monitor their
progression.

Friday afternoon/evening, a chance for strong to severe storms
exists as a surface low and the associated surface front develops
over western Kansas and moves northeast. Winds will continue to come
from the south out ahead of the surface low increasing WAA and
moisture. This will help to increase instability which can be
noticed in CAPE values exceeding 2,500 J/kg and dew point
temperatures around 70 degrees. Plenty of shear will be available as
bulk shear values remain around 40-50 knots. Lapse rates are
underwhelming as they stay around 6.5 degrees Celsius/km. Guidance
suggests a line of thunderstorms developing along the boundary in
the evening starting in eastern Kansas/northwest Missouri. The
line of storms is expected to move southeast and increase in
coverage south of I-70. With PWAT values exceeding 2 inches,
heavy rainfall could be an issue further impacting local
flooding. Along with heavy rainfall, some strong winds may be a
concern. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be out of the
area by early Saturday morning.

For Saturday, winds shift to the north behind the boundary bringing
some relief from the heat. Saturday high temperatures are expected
to be a few degrees cooler than Friday. Ridging builds into the area
Sunday which will help keep temperatures bearable through the start
of next week. As the high shifts to our east, winds will come from
the south advecting warmer air from the south. Heat advisory level
conditions are possible for Tuesday across the region with warmer
heat indices staying to the south of I-70.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

VFR ceilings remain in the forecast for most TAF sites into
tonight, with KSTJ seeing prevailing upstream MVFR ceilings
instead. Wind gusts around 25 kts will persist until late
today. Overnight, a complex of thunderstorms is expected to
develop and impact all TAF sites. Timing should generally fall
within the 1-5z timeframe. After the passage of this storm
complex, VFR/MVFR ceilings will return, with a shift of winds
out of the north.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...SPG/CDB