Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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155 FXUS63 KEAX 270736 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 236 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal through Monday but no hazardous weather expected the next 7 days. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 235 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Early this morning, Hurricane Helene has made landfall and the 500mb low associated with this system is located over southern Georgia. Another 500mb low is located near the AR/TN/MS border. Today these two features will engage in the Fujiwhara effect as they do their upper level dance across the lower Ohio River and Tennessee River Valleys until eventually merging to form one 500mb low over the Tennessee River Valley. The rain shield associated with these system will drift back towards the local forecast area today however, it will do little bit perhaps clip our extreme southeastern CWA with a few light showers. Cloud cover will over spread the area from east to west leading to cooler highs in the mid 70s across central Missouri to near 80 across western Missouri and eastern Kansas. This upper level system will move very little through the weekend but will weaken becoming less of a player for the local weather. However, what will become more of a player is a upper level ridge of high pressure over the southwestern CONUS and eastern Rockies. This feature will creep eastward through the weekend leading to slightly warmer temps with highs achieving the upper 70s to lower 80s. Monday, the aforementioned upper level ridge axis will move directly over the area providing the warmest day of the forecast period with highs in the low to mid 80s. Monday night, a upper level trough will move across the northern Plains into the extreme Upper Midwest flattening the upper level ridge and force a cold front through the area. The frontal passage will be dry however, modest cold air advection behind this front late Monday night into Tuesday will bring a cooler day with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s. A quick moving area of surface high pressure will move through Tuesday night bringing some of the coolest air of the season with lows dropping into the low 40s to near 50. WAA should get quickly underway behind the departing surface high Wednesday allowing highs to return to the 70s. Continued WAA under zonal flow aloft on Thursday will bring back warm condition with highs reaching the upper 70s to mid 80s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1146 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Forecast consensus is lowering probabilities of BR across the region. Highest chances remain north of the KC terminals including STJ which may see some VIS reductions. BR will likely be contained in valleys and/or near large bodies of water. After sunrise VFR conditions return light winds overnight become more northerly accelerating to 12-15 knots with gusts around 20 knots during the afternoon. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...73 AVIATION...Pesel