Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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383 FXUS63 KEAX 261115 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 615 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Complex of thunderstorms through Sunrise. Severe Winds Possible. - Thunderstorm Chances Thursday into Friday. - Periods of Hot and Humid conditions late week and next week, including July Fourth. && .UPDATE... Issued at 609 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 The mesoscale convective system is moving out of the CWA at this time, and the severe thunderstorm watch has been canceled for all counties in our forecast area. Will clean up the near-term forecast in the next couple of hours as the precipitation shifts to our southeast. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 157 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 This will be a quick discussion as ongoing severe convection has our primary focus. As of 1 AM, a line of storms continues to advance southward across northwestern and central Missouri, racing toward the lower Missouri valley by 2 to 3 AM. A second complex of storms is developing in eastern Nebraska and is expected to track southeast into northeastern Kansas and western Missouri behind this first line. The current line of storms has become unbalanced on it`s western Flank, north of the KC Metro area, with it`s gust front well, nearly 10 to 20 miles, ahead of the actual convection. The eastern flank has maintained balance and therefore continues to put down reports of severe wind from near Chillicothe to western Macon County. Additional storms have maintained along the KS/MO Missouri Valley, with reports of 60 mph wind gusts. This activity appears anchored nearer a surface boundary. Overall, this first MCS is working with copious amounts of MUCAPE, over 3000 J/Kg and forward prop Corfidi Vectors line up well with 0-3km shear, suggesting continued forward propagation southward toward the Ozarks through the early morning. Even with the progressive motion, there remains concern for localized flooding, with several locations receiving probably 3 to 4 inches of rainfall. Looking to the northwest to Nebraska, as mentioned above, the eastern nebraska complex of storms will be tracking southeast trailing the current activity. Out ahead, it`s working with 3500 to 4000 J/Kg of MUCAPE, real classic MCS ingredients in place, with shear - cold balance maintaining right now in southeast Nebraska. Honestly, it`s looking like it will follow the traditional 1000- 500mb thickness contours right along the axis of greatest MUCAPE across northeastern Kansas and into the KC Metro Area through 3 to 4 AM. With that said, there is a lot of uncertainty in how the current environment will be modified by the first round of storms. Overall, given trends, storms will continue to build southward and wind will remain the primary concern. The system appears progressive enough the flooding risk will remain rather local, but any slowdown, we could end up with training storms and increased risk of flash flooding. Precipitation should end by late morning, through 10 AM to the south and southeast. Surface ridging will build in gradually behind, with a reprieve from the hot and humid conditions we`ve had, with more seasonable highs, in the mid to upper 80s. Mid-level ridging will build over the mountain west, with surface high pressure continue to settle into Thursday morning. A subtle short wave trough traversing the ridge will bring increased chances for precipitation Thursday night into Friday. A general weakening of the H500 ridge over the southern Plains will result in increased return flow through Friday and the Weekend, with off and on chances for showers and storms through Saturday. Looking far ahead, the week of July Fourth looks hot and humid. July second and third could see heat index values approaching advisory criteria. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 609 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Convection has moved off to the southeast of the terminals early this morning; however, winds will continue to be influenced this morning by the mature convective system, with east winds gradually becoming north or northeast late this morning. Speeds around 10 kt with occasional gusts to 20 kt are expected this afternoon, with a gradual diminishing trend overnight. CIGs today will be mostly VFR, although cannot rule out a brief period of MVFR this morning (around a 25 percent chance). VFR is expected to prevail this afternoon through tonight. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 352 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Areas upstream of the MO River have received several inches of rainfall in recent days. Runoff from these rains is funneling into the MO River and should make its way downstream over the next several days. Forecasts anticipate some areas reaching minor to moderate flood stage towards the end of the week. Please visit our local river forecast page at water.noaa.gov/wfo/eax to view updated forecasts. Note that forecasted river stages and timing may be significantly affected by updated information and additional rainfall around the region. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ UPDATE...CMS DISCUSSION...Kurtz AVIATION...CMS HYDROLOGY...Pesel