Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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187 FXUS64 KEPZ 291127 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 527 AM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 319 AM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Plentiful moisture will persist across the Borderland this weekend and into most of next week. High pressure aloft centered over north Texas will push the highest moisture further west of the Rio Grande Valley today, with the best chances of thunderstorms in that area. Temperatures will be quite hot today before lowering the rest of the week. This pattern will continue through Tuesday before the upper high recedes further east. This will allow a more even distribution of moisture, and hence chances of thunderstorms, across the entire area Wednesday through Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 319 AM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Early morning WV imagery shows main upper high now over NE Texas with moisture plume mainly over the western two-thirds of the CWA. Expect another round of thunderstorms this afternoon/evening with perhaps just a slightly better chance west of the RG Valley. Increasing low level east flow over the eastern CWA could produce better thunderstorm coverage, depending on if the convergence zone can stay in the east. At any rate this east flow could very well produce upslope over the Sacs; therefore will continue the Flash Flood Watch for that area. Modest CAPE values this afternoon and shear environment not too great, so with slow storm movement expect flooding to be main threat today. Temperatures should peak today for the entire forecast period with Heat Advisories in effect for most of the lowlands. While plentiful moisture will continue across the entire area through the forecast period, model trends continue to show the deeper moisture plume slowly shifting west Sunday through Tuesday. Therefore I did tailor the POPs to that idea. Flooding still looks to remain the big threat, though storm movement likely somewhat faster on Sunday. Upper high recedes further east starting Wednesday into Friday. With the help of some Polar Jet energy dropping into the void between the SE US high and the east Pacific high, moisture plume begins to shift back east over all the forecast area. Hence POPs should become more uniform once again. GFS also shows PWs maxing out Wed/Wed night as high as 1.6". So Wednesday could be a day with better flooding potential. Thursday and Friday should continue this pattern, though with lower PWs. Previous models had shown the East Pacific high to usher in drier northerly air by Friday, but latest runs have given up on this scenario. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 527 AM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024 VFR conditions expected through the period. Currently SCT100 BKN250. A few BKN050 -SHRA mainly Sierra/Grant Counties. Developing after 18Z...scattered BKN/OVC050CB -TSRA, mainly over the mountains. Isolated thunderstorms moving to the lowlands after 20Z...mostly west of the Rio Grande Valley. Surface winds variable AOB 7 knots. After 18Z...winds east/southeast 10-15G25 knots. After 00Z, mainly over El Paso/Hudspeth Counties, winds increasing to southeast 12-17G30 knots. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 319 AM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Not much fire concerns as far as new starts or growth, but flooding near and in the burn scars will continue to be a concern. Flood potential is elevated today across the Sacs as a wind shift to the east and upslope flow could increase rainfall near the Salt and South Fork scars. Flood potential should be less of a threat Sunday through Tuesday as moisture shifts further west. Flood potential looks to increase again Wednesday through Friday across most of the fire zones. Min RHs: Lowlands 15-25% through Tuesday, then 20-35% Wednesday. Mountains 25-40% through Tuesday, then 30-45% Wednesday. Vent rates very good-excellent today and Sunday, mostly good Monday through Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 108 82 103 80 / 30 30 10 20 Sierra Blanca 100 71 95 70 / 30 20 10 10 Las Cruces 107 77 101 75 / 30 40 20 30 Alamogordo 103 69 97 69 / 30 30 20 20 Cloudcroft 80 53 76 53 / 40 30 20 20 Truth or Consequences 102 75 97 74 / 30 40 20 40 Silver City 95 66 91 66 / 50 60 30 60 Deming 105 75 99 73 / 40 60 20 60 Lordsburg 102 74 99 71 / 40 60 30 70 West El Paso Metro 106 79 100 79 / 30 30 10 20 Dell City 104 72 99 72 / 20 10 10 10 Fort Hancock 108 76 102 74 / 30 20 10 20 Loma Linda 99 70 93 71 / 30 20 10 20 Fabens 108 78 102 76 / 30 30 10 20 Santa Teresa 105 76 99 75 / 30 30 10 20 White Sands HQ 104 78 97 78 / 30 30 20 20 Jornada Range 105 73 98 71 / 30 40 20 20 Hatch 106 73 100 72 / 30 50 20 40 Columbus 105 76 99 74 / 30 60 20 60 Orogrande 103 73 97 73 / 30 30 20 20 Mayhill 89 57 85 58 / 50 20 30 20 Mescalero 91 57 86 57 / 40 30 20 20 Timberon 88 54 84 56 / 40 20 20 20 Winston 93 60 88 61 / 50 50 30 40 Hillsboro 99 70 93 69 / 50 60 30 50 Spaceport 103 69 96 68 / 30 40 20 30 Lake Roberts 93 62 91 63 / 60 50 30 60 Hurley 98 68 94 66 / 40 60 20 60 Cliff 103 65 100 63 / 40 40 30 50 Mule Creek 97 67 94 65 / 40 40 40 60 Faywood 98 70 93 68 / 40 60 20 60 Animas 102 72 99 70 / 40 60 30 60 Hachita 103 72 98 70 / 40 60 30 70 Antelope Wells 101 70 96 69 / 50 60 40 70 Cloverdale 96 66 93 66 / 50 60 40 70 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Sunday for TXZ418-419-423-424. NM...Heat Advisory from noon today to 6 AM MDT Sunday for NMZ407-410- 411-427>429. Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for NMZ415- 416. && $$ FORECASTER...17-Hefner