406
FXUS64 KEPZ 250915
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
315 AM MDT Wed Sep 25 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 255 AM MDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Quiet and dry weather conditions with hot temperatures will be the
theme through the weekend. High temperatures this weekend will be
10-15 degrees above average. The hottest day will be Friday where
the high temperature in El Paso could rival the daily record of
98 degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 AM MDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Overall, no major changes in the forecast from previous forecast
packages with quiet weather conditions and hot temperatures across
far west TX and southern NM over the next few days.

Strengthening high pressure a aloft will be the main feature
dictating the sensible weather conditions across the Borderland
Region through the period. High pressure will continue building in
across the Four Corners and Southern Rockies region through the day,
leading to quiet weather conditions and above average warmth across
the desert lowlands. High temperatures this afternoon will top out
in the low to middle 90s under mostly sunny skies.

By the Thursday and Friday timeframe, upper level low over IL/MO/KY
tri-state area will interact soon-to-be Hurricane Helene after it
makes landfall near the Big Bend Region of Florida. Once inland
during the Thu-Fri timeframe, Helene will be pulled northwestward
across the Ohio/Tennessee River Valleys rotating around the
aforementioned upper low (Fujiwhara Effect). These two systems
will basically rotate around one another, while strengthening and
deepening. This will ultimately help strengthen the upper level
high over New Mexico leading the anomalous warmth through the
weekend.

High temperatures will be the warmest Friday through Sunday with
Friday being the hottest. 98 degrees is currently forecasted for
Friday which would tie the daily record. The possibility of hitting
100 degrees is not zero, but confidence in that happening is LOW.
Regardless, it`s going to be abnormally warm through the week.

Looking ahead, upper level ridging over the region will remain in
place leading to above average temperatures and dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1101 PM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024

VFR conditions will persist with SKC overnight and calm winds.
FEW100 develop in the afternoon with light easterly breezes and
dry conditions persisting.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 255 AM MDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Upper level high pressure over the region with warm/above average
temperatures and dry conditions will be the theme through the
weekend. Fire weather concerns are LOW to LOW-END ELEVATED each
afternoon, LOW-END ELEVATED for elevations below 7500 ft. High
temperatures will remain 5-15 degrees above the seasonal average
with Min RH values across the desert lowlands/Gila between 15-25
percent and 25-35 percent over the Sacs this afternoon.

As high pressure aloft becomes more established over New Mexico,
daily high temperatures will be 5-15 degrees above average with Min
RH values at or below critical thresholds Friday through early next
week.

Winds will remain light and generally out of east/southeast. Winds
over the mountains will be more terrain influenced, along with
following it`s typical diurnal wind flow regimes. Mixing heights
will range from 9000-13000 feet each afternoon with Good to Very
Good ventilation rates.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  94  66  93  67 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            84  56  86  57 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               92  61  92  62 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               91  58  91  61 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               68  45  70  48 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    89  60  92  62 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              85  57  88  59 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   93  60  93  60 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                92  63  93  62 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       92  67  92  67 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                89  57  92  59 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             92  61  93  61 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               84  58  85  62 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   92  62  93  62 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             90  63  91  62 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           91  63  91  67 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            91  59  92  62 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    93  59  93  60 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 92  63  93  62 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                89  58  90  60 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  77  48  83  54 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                80  49  82  51 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 76  47  79  51 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  82  49  86  51 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                89  56  91  59 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                90  56  91  59 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             85  50  88  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   88  56  90  57 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    95  53  97  54 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               88  57  90  59 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  87  58  88  59 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   93  61  94  60 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  91  60  92  59 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           92  60  93  61 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               89  61  90  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...38-Rogers