746
FXUS64 KEWX 270527 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1227 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

...New AVIATION (06Z TAFS)...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

The upper level ridge remains centered northwest of the area this
afternoon. Surface high pressure centered over the Gulf is producing
southeasterly winds across South Central Texas. A warm, moist
airmass remains in place. Temperatures are in the upper 80s and
lower 90s and dewpoints are in the upper 60s to middle 70s. Heat
indices range from the middle 90s to 107. A Heat Advisory remains in
effect this afternoon for the I-35 Corridor and Coastal Plains.

There is a line of thunderstorms over northeastern TX moving toward
the south. Most of the hi-res models keep these storms east of our
CWA as it approaches later this evening, but there are a couple of
solutions that bring some storms into our eastern counties. The
solutions that keep this activity east of us seem more likely to us
and we have left out any mention of convection this evening.

The overall weather pattern will not change significantly during the
short term. Tonight will be partly to mostly cloudy and temperatures
will be warm. Lows Thursday morning will be about the same as this
morning. Daytime Thursday will see a bit less cloudiness and
temperatures will be a couple of degrees warmer than today. Most
places will still be in the middle to upper 90s with triple digits
along the Rio Grande. Dewpoints Thursday afternoon will be in the
70s again sending heat indices to 105 to 110 and we have issued a
Heat Advisory for the I-35 Corridor and Coastal Plains. Thursday
night should be a near repeat of tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

The 500 mb heights may lower a tad entering Friday as the mid-level
ridge repositions while a weak inverted trough also advances into
northern portions of coastal Mexico and Deep South Texas. This may
help to promote a few tropical showers and/or isolated sea breeze
convection to advance inland into our southeastern most coastal
plain counties. Elsewhere, conditions are to remain hot and humid
under partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies and with a rain free
forecast.

The mid-level ridge centered over North Texas towards the Arklatex
region will then restrengthen through the weekend into the 595 to
598 dm range. The center of that ridge then slowly slides eastward
early to middle of next week. With our region under the influence of
this ridge, it`s subsidence will keep area rain chances nil. The
only exception may be Sunday across our southern most locations as
the far northern periphery of moisture associated with a tropical
wave advancing across the western Caribbean through the Bay of
Campeche and into northern Mexico. Given the model trends and the
typical setup with the stronger ridging to the north, have elected
to lower PoPs into the slight category compared to the latest NBM
output.

The afternoon high temperatures start to gradually nudge upwards
later this weekend and towards the middle of next week as the mid-
level ridge strengthens. However, with greater diurnal mixing and
drying soil moistures, the surface dew points will likely start
mixing out more efficiently through each afternoon. Despite the
higher afternoon daytime highs, including locations topping out
around or above 100 degrees, could see the heat indices remain of
near or perhaps lower than the peak heat indices seen today or
recently with those very humid dew point values. Overnight lows
should become slightly more seasonable as well with mostly clear
skies trending more often into the overnight hours with the lower
dew points persisting through the evening hours.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

VFR CIGS can be expected through the period at AUS and DRT, with a
brief round of MVFR CIGS at SAT and SSF. Confidence is low in these
MVFR ceilings however, so opted to bump about 2000 ft at SAT and SSF.
Overall, winds should remain less than 10 kts, but some gusts up to
20kts are possible at DRT as early as late morning Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              98  79  98  80 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  98  76  97  79 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     98  76  98  79 /   0   0  10   0
Burnet Muni Airport            98  77  97  79 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport          102  81 103  82 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        98  77  97  78 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             98  77  98  79 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        98  76  97  77 /   0   0  10   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   96  78  95  79 /   0   0  10   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       98  78  97  80 /   0   0  10   0
Stinson Muni Airport           99  78  98  80 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for
Atascosa-Bastrop-Bexar-Caldwell-Comal-De Witt-Fayette-Frio-Gonzales-
Guadalupe-Hays-Karnes-Lavaca-Lee-Travis-Williamson-Wilson.

&&

$$

Short-Term...Platt
Long-Term...03
Aviation...MMM