071
FXUS64 KEWX 300521
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1221 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

A few showers persist over the coastal plains into the Highway 77
corridor early this afternoon. Radar trends show this activity
slowly weakening and with most of the hi-res models suggesting
additional convection is unlikely, we will keep the forecast dry for
the afternoon and evening. Expect another warm night, with lows in
the 70s to near 80 degrees along with gusty winds this evening. Low
clouds will develop once again late tonight and persist through most
of Sunday morning. A subtle increase in moisture and the low-level
jet should be enough to generate some isolated showers Sunday
morning over the coastal plains. With daytime heating, some isolated
showers and storms may develop farther north to an Eagle Pass to San
Antonio to Schulenburg line. We will keep a 20% chance for rain in
the forecast for these areas. At least a few of the hi-res models
show some convection may develop even farther north into portions of
the Hill Country and I-35 corridor. With not much in the way of
focused lift, we will keep the forecast dry for the coastal plains
and I-35 corridor north of San Antonio and continue to monitor
subsequent model data. It will be hot again on Sunday and prefer to
stick closer to a persistence forecast vs. the NBM which looks too
low. With this in mind, we will issue another Heat Advisory on
Sunday from 1 PM until 7 PM for the coastal plains and most areas
along and east of the Interstate 35 corridor.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Upper level ridging will be centered over the South Central US
Monday, shifting to the east slowly through late week. High
temperatures will remain in the 90s and triple digits this upcoming
week with lows in the 70s to low 80s. Humidity will continue to be
highest in areas along and east of I-35 where additional Heat
Advisories are likely for most days due to high heat indices. Dry
weather will be the normal with only some low end shower and isolated
thunderstorm chances over the coastal plains due to the seabreeze.
The best chances for this will be on Wednesday. A trough may move
into the southern Plains Friday night into Saturday with a front
forecast to approach the area next weekend. There remains a lot of
uncertainty in the details of this system, so have continued with a
mainly dry forecast on Saturday per the NBM.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

MVFR ceilings are expected once again across the airports overnight
tonight with bases around 1500-2000 feet. South/southeast flow will
prevail through the period, but speeds will be a bit less tomorrow
than today. Any shower activity today will be mainly south of the San
Antonio airports and will leave the forecast dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              78 101  78 102 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  75 100  77 101 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     75 100  75 101 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            76  99  77 100 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           80 102  80 105 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        77  99  77 100 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             75  99  75 101 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        74  99  75 100 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   76  97  76  98 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       77 100  77 101 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           77 100  77 101 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for
Atascosa-Bastrop-Bexar-Caldwell-Comal-De Witt-Fayette-Frio-Gonzales-
Guadalupe-Hays-Karnes-Lavaca-Lee-Travis-Williamson-Wilson.

&&

$$

Short-Term...Platt
Long-Term...27
Aviation...29