446
FXUS64 KEWX 271732
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1232 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 148 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

A weakness in the 500mb ridge may afford the Hill Country, portions
of the I-35 Corridor, and Coastal Plains a quick round of showers or
storms Thursday afternoon/evening. A complex of storms over the
Panhandle will slide southward under weak northerly flow around the
eastern periphery of the 500mb High situated over SW Texas today.
These storms may send an outflow boundary into our CWA, and during
peak heating, we may see a few storms fire up along any boundary
that moves into our neck of the woods. Most will remain dry, but a
lucky few may get a quick round of relief.

A Heat Advisory will be in effect once again through 7pm this
evening for the I-35/I-37 Corridor and points eastward. Temperatures
will top out in the upper 90s to near 100 today, making it the
hottest day of this latest stretch of heat. Heat indices are expected
to climb into the 105-112 range, so make sure you find a way to stay
cool and hydrated if you must be outdoors this afternoon. On Friday,
expect more of the same in the heat department, as temperatures soar
into the upper 90s to near 100. Heat indices will again climb into
the 105-112 range for the I-35/I-37 Corridor and points east and
another Heat Advisory may be needed.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 148 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

The upper level ridge will remain centered just north of the area
over the weekend maintaining an influence over the area. A subtle
increase in moisture across the southern areas, south of U.S. 90, is
indicated Sunday and could generate very isolated showers. However,
most of the deeper moisture will be well south of the region with
the tropical wave. The ridge is forecast to center northeast of the
area during the early to middle part of next week. Continued warm
and dry for most of the region, with the exception of a 10-20%
chance of stray afternoon showers in the Coastal Plains. Will
continue to monitor for heat advisories during this time.

Only other thing of note, we are entering the Saharan dust season.
The first round of light dust could arrive as early as Saturday, with
more moderate and noticeable amounts arriving Sunday and Monday per
dust aerosol optical thickness and vertical concentration forecasts
from GMAO. Anticipate slightly more colorful sunrises and sunsets
Sunday and Monday and hazy/milky appearance to the sky during the
day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period. There is a low end
chance an isolated thunderstorm develops in Central Texas late this
afternoon near AUS, but confidence is too low to include in the TAF.
Southerly to southeasterly wind continues through the period mainly
at or below 12 knots. Gusts up to 20 knots possible at DRT through
02Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              79 100  80  99 /  10   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  77  98  79  99 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     77  99  79  98 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            78  98  79  97 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           82 104  83 102 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        77  98  78  98 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             77  99  79  99 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        76  98  77  97 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   78  95  79  95 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       79  99  80  99 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           79  99  80 100 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Atascosa-Bastrop-
Bexar-Caldwell-Comal-De Witt-Fayette-Frio-Gonzales-Guadalupe-Hays-
Karnes-Lavaca-Lee-Travis-Williamson-Wilson.

Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Friday for Atascosa-Bastrop-
Bexar-Caldwell-Comal-De Witt-Fayette-Frio-Gonzales-Guadalupe-Hays-
Karnes-Lavaca-Lee-Travis-Wilson.

&&

$$

Short-Term...MMM
Long-Term...76
Aviation...27