Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
330 FXUS64 KEWX 250639 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 139 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 118 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 The upper level ridge is forecast to center northwest of the area, with the southeast periphery of the ridge still maintaining an influence over most of the area today. With the exception of a 10- 20% chance of stray to isolated tropical showers across portions of Lavaca and DeWitt counties this afternoon, the area is forecast to remain dry, warm, and humid today. We saw a few locations east of I- 35 briefly reach heat advisory criteria late yesterday, and with temperatures at or slightly warmer today we are forecasting a larger area of peak heat index values of 105-110 degrees along and east of the I-35 and I-37 corridors. We have issued a Heat Advisory for this area today and another advisory on Wednesday could be required. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 118 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 The long term forecast will continue to revolve around the influence of a 500mb Subtropical Ridge in place over the southwestern and south-central CONUS. Hot and dry weather is expected area-wide Thursday as temperatures soar into the mid to upper 90s. Heat indices will likely climb into Heat Advisory territory for the Coastal Plains, and perhaps as far west as the I-35 Corridor. A similar setup can be expected on Friday, however, 500mb heights weaken just a bit, opening the door for some seabreeze activity over the Coastal Plains by late afternoon. Temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 90s with heat indices in the 108-112 range over the Coastal Plains and portions of the I-35 Corridor. This daily chance at a shower or storm will continue through the weekend into early next week as weak easterly flow remains in place on the southern periphery of the Subtropical Ridge. Expect typical Summer heat through early next week with highs in the 90s and heat indices in the 105-110 range. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Patchy stratus is beginning to form north of a UVA-HDO-SAT line. The stratus will expand in coverage across the Hill Country and I-35 corridor through the overnight, and potentially into the Rio Grande briefly 12Z-14Z. Mainly MVFR ceilings are expected with this stratus, however some patchy IFR ceilings are possible across the Hill Country. The stratus is expected to gradually scatter out 15Z-17Z with VFR conditions thereafter. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 97 79 99 78 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 97 77 97 77 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 97 77 97 76 / 10 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 96 77 97 77 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 101 81 102 81 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 97 77 97 77 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 97 77 98 76 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 95 76 96 75 / 10 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 93 77 94 77 / 10 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 97 79 97 77 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 97 79 98 77 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for Atascosa-Bastrop-Bexar-Caldwell-Comal-De Witt-Fayette-Gonzales- Guadalupe-Hays-Karnes-Lavaca-Lee-Travis-Williamson-Wilson. && $$ Short-Term...76 Long-Term...MMM Aviation...76