Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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301 FXUS64 KEWX 171733 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1233 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 139 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 A blocky pattern aloft continues over the CONUS region. Shortwaves rotating through troughing over the western states, ridging over Mexico extending to over Texas to the Great Lakes, and the remnants of Francine over the eastern states absorbing the remnants of PTC 8. CAMs show a few very isolated showers possible from portions of the Hill Country to across the I-35 corridor to near the Coastal Plains this afternoon into early evening due to heating along a dissipating surface boundary. However, chances around 10 percent are too low to mention, at this time. The boundary is gone by Wednesday with no showers expected. Well above average, summer-like temperatures continue due to lower level thermal ridging. Some of our climate sites will approach record highs today the 17th of September. See CLIMATE section below for details. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 139 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Upper level ridging dominates the local area through the upcoming weekend. At the surface, a moist southerly flow is forecast to take control through the period with overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s across the Hill Country to the mid and upper 70s along the I-35 corridor, Rio Grande and Coastal Plains areas. High temperatures are forecast to be above the normal climate values for several locations ranging from low to mid 90s and even near 100 across the southern part of the Rio Grande. Any shower activity from Wednesday night through Sunday morning is likely limited to the Coastal Plains. From Sunday morning into the afternoon, an upper level short wave trough is forecast to move across the Texas panhandle continuing into the central and eastern parts of the Central Plains. At the surface, a cold front stretches from the Central Plains southwestward into west Texas. The frontal boundary lingers to the northwest of South Central Texas through the period. There is a slight chance for showers across the southern Edwards Plateau on Sunday afternoon as an upper level disturbance pushes over that area. The work week begins with dry conditions for most areas with lows and highs closer to the normal values for the season. Beyond the extended forecast period: A stronger and deeper upper level short wave trough is forecast to push across South Central Texas on Wednesday. A cold front is forecast to push across the local area on Wednesday afternoon based on the GFS solution. The ECMWF keeps the frontal boundary to the north of the local area. Long story short, if the GFS solution is on track, then rain chances are possible with cooler temps mid to late next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1231 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 VFR conditions have returned for the afternoon and evening at all terminals. Southerly to southeasterly winds will continue to bring warm, moist air to the region. MVFR ceilings will develop before sunrise Wednesday and last until around noon. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 139 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Record High Temperatures Sep 17 Austin Bergstrom....99 (2005*) Austin Camp Mabry...99 (2021) Del Rio............103 (2021) San Antonio.........98 (1997) * denotes previous years && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 75 98 76 99 / 10 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 73 98 75 98 / 10 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 74 99 76 99 / 10 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 73 96 74 96 / 10 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 78 97 79 98 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 73 96 74 97 / 10 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 73 95 75 97 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 73 97 74 97 / 10 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 73 96 74 97 / 10 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 76 97 77 97 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 75 98 78 99 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...04 Long-Term...17 Aviation...05