Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
244 FXUS64 KEWX 280658 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 158 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 135 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Just a few high clouds at the present hour across South-Central Texas with temperatures in the 80s. Lows later tonight into the morning hours will be on the warm side, in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees. The main issue today will be the heat with highs back in the upper 90s to near 103 degrees for most of the area. Humidity values will remain elevated and expect Heat Index values to be at or above 108 degrees for locations along and east of the I35 corridor. The current Heat Advisory remains in effect and did not need any changes to the product. There is a very low chance of a shower in the extreme southeastern counties this afternoon, but overall chances were too low to mention anything specific in the official forecast for now. Not much change is expected tonight into tomorrow with warm overnight periods and hot afternoons. Will likely need another Heat Advisory tomorrow and one could be issued this afternoon for Saturday. No rain is expected tomorrow. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 135 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 We are now starting to get into the hottest days of the year as we get ready to turn the calendar over to the month of July. Heat headlines are likely most days, with heat indices in the 105-110 range most days and highs in the upper 90s to 103. We can thank a 500mb Subtropical High in place over the south central United States along with 200mb heights at the all time climatological maximum over most of Texas via the NAEFS ESAT tables. Expect the heat to actually worsen late this weekend into early next week as the ridge builds further east over Texas. As soils continue to dry out from Spring rains, the humidity may start to back off a bit, but still enough to give us those elevated heat indices for most locations. By late week and into the 4th of July Holiday, the ridge should start to slide further east into the southeastern CONUS, with high temps backing off perhaps a few degrees. Make no mistake though, it will remain hot, with temperatures remaining near early July normals in the mid to upper 90s. We will keep our eye on the Tropics towards the end of next week as record warm waters over the Atlantic will allow continued activity within the Caribbean to work its way in the direction of the Gulf of Mexico. Disturbance 95L has a greater than 80% chance of forming into a tropical storm over the next 48 hours to the east of the Lesser Antilles. Should this storm move into the central Caribbean, we would need to keep a close eye on it as the Bermuda High would send it westward with time. For now, continue to find ways to stay cool, and don`t forget to apply that sunscreen. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1206 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 VFR conditions are prevailing this evening and should do so for most if not all of the period. Should see some scattered low clouds around day break for the I35 sites, but can`t rule out some brief BKN ceilings with this. Otherwise, southerly flow will prevail with some slightly higher speeds during the afternoon periods. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 101 80 99 79 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 99 79 98 77 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 100 80 98 78 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 99 79 98 77 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 104 83 103 81 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 99 79 98 77 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 99 78 100 77 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 99 78 98 76 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 96 79 95 77 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 100 80 98 79 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 101 80 100 79 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for Atascosa-Bastrop-Bexar-Caldwell-Comal-De Witt-Fayette-Frio-Gonzales- Guadalupe-Hays-Karnes-Lavaca-Lee-Travis-Williamson-Wilson. && $$ Short-Term...29 Long-Term...MMM Aviation...29