Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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978 FXUS62 KFFC 270552 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 152 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 ...New 06Z Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 239 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 A dry and hot day is ongoing with mid-afternoon temperatures well into the upper 90s and 100s. Fortunately, dewpoints remain anchored in the 50s across the majority of the area, preventing any extreme heat index readings this afternoon. With temperatures running 2-3 degrees above forecast by midday, highs were adjusted slightly upward for this afternoon, putting record daily high temperatures within reach at Atlanta and Macon. The vast majority of us will remain parched again today with only a rogue shower or thunderstorm possible through this evening given our dry and capped atmosphere. Some welcome changes are on the way for Thursday, however. A shortwave currently approaching the Tennessee Valley will shift eastward by Thursday morning into our area, setting the stage for much better rain chances than we`ve seen in a while. Moisture will surge substantially in advance of this feature with PWATs rapidly increasing from current ~1" to over 2" by tomorrow morning. Some showers and perhaps diminishing thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Thursday morning with PoPs increasing first across west/northwest Georgia. Further development of scattered showers and thunderstorms is expected by early afternoon as heating increases. Additionally, any MCV feature from earlier convection (as hinted by CAMs) would also provide further impetus for diurnally enhanced development. For this reason, high end chance to low end likely PoPs are being advertised on Thursday afternoon. No substantial severe risk is anticipated with forecast SBCAPE generally <1500 J/kg and weak lapse rates. More widespread cloud cover and convection will hold high temperatures to much more manageable levels on Thursday. Highs will be much closer to seasonal norms, generally in the upper 80s to lower 90s, with the 100s fortunately eliminated for the time being. RW && .LONG TERM... (Friday morning through next Tuesday) Issued at 239 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 On the heels of a mid lvl shortwave crossing the area (Thursday), the upr high will quickly attempt to re-assert itself across the Southern Plains/Southeast region. A return to more typical humidity values will increase the heat risk through the weekend with heat indices expected to be in the 105-110F range for much of the area south/east of I-85 by Sunday. In addition to the heat/humidity, the chance for storms will increase by Sunday as a weakness in the upr ridge could send some energy across the area to aid in convective development. Drier air attempts to build in from the NW early next week with the threat for scattered storms remaining across much of central GA. The center of the upr high meanders back toward the SE region by mid week maintaining a hot pattern across the area. Temperatures by the middle of the week heading into 4th of July could be running 5-10F degrees above normal. DJN.83 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 144 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Conds to deteriorate through the morning. Cigs initially 10kft or higher will drop to BKN low-VFR by 14-15Z with arrival of wave of moisture. -TSRA will be possible (and likely at times) over a broad window spanning 18-02Z, currently captured by both a TEMPO and PROB30 group. Impacts most probable to northern terminals between 18-22Z. MVFR vsbys psbl during heaviest pcpn. Winds will be out of the W side (WNW to SW) at 5-6kts through early aftn, swinging to the SE by 22-23Z... again at 6kts or less. Nonzero chc of low- MVFR to IFR cigs Friday morning. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... Medium confidence all elements. 96 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 71 92 73 92 / 40 40 40 50 Atlanta 74 92 76 94 / 40 40 30 50 Blairsville 67 85 69 86 / 30 60 40 70 Cartersville 71 92 73 93 / 30 40 20 60 Columbus 74 93 75 94 / 40 50 20 40 Gainesville 72 89 74 90 / 30 40 40 60 Macon 72 94 73 95 / 30 50 20 30 Rome 72 93 75 94 / 30 40 20 60 Peachtree City 71 93 73 94 / 30 40 20 40 Vidalia 75 97 76 97 / 40 70 30 40 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM....DJN.83 AVIATION...96