255
FXUS62 KFFC 170008
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
808 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024



...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 217 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

At a glance:

    - Unseasonable warmth to continue into the work week

    - Isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms today

The Southeast remains in a regime of ridging, with the center of a
mid-level high located across eastern Georgia and the Carolinas, and
the western fringes of a retreating surface high continuing to
overspread the area. The result of the aforementioned features: our
early season "heat wave" continues. Highs this afternoon will top out
in the low-to-mid 90s (aside from northeast Georgia, which will
remain in the upper-70s to 80s). Monday looks to be a few degrees
"cooler", with highs in the upper-80s to lower-90s expected.

The saving grace of this setup continues to be low afternoon
relative humidities (in the 30-40% range), which will spare north and
central Georgia from heat index values that would prompt Heat
Advisory issuance. The moral of the story: despite lower moisture
precluding more oppressive heat, continue to pace yourself -- and
take hydration breaks in the shade -- if planning on spending large
parts of your day outdoors, and always look before you lock.

With a surface high sliding across New York State and off the
Eastern Seaboard and characteristic U-shaped isobars banking up
against the Appalachian mountains, north and north central Georgia
look primed for "cold" air damming through midweek. Aided by
isentropic lift over the "cool" (slightly less hot?) dome, isolated
afternoon thunderstorms are possible today for areas north of I-20.
On Monday, with stability on the increase as the wedge strengthens,
chances for thunder are low for areas outside of the terrain of NE
Georgia, but isolated showers cannot be ruled out elsewhere. Sensible
differences in temperature under the wedge are unlikely to be felt
outside of far northeast Georgia, where highs will be 5-6 degrees
lower, in the low-to-mid 80s.

96

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday morning through next Saturday)
Issued at 217 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Key Messages:

 - Dry weather and slightly above average temperatures are expected
   Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday.

 - Rain chances will be on the rise late in the coming week as
   tropical moisture filters back into Georgia.

An upper level ridge oriented N/S will start the period centered
over the Mid-Atlantic states on Tue. This feature is forecast to
pivot and become more E-W oriented by late Wed. At the surface, a
sprawling high pressure ridge will be situated just N of the area as
an easterly wave is forecast to approach the SE US by Thu.

Due to the ridge position and dry air in place over the region, PoPs
will be low to non-existent for much of the area into Thu. The best
chances for diurnal shower and thunderstorm activity will be across
the SE corner of the area, with chance PoPs returning to locations SE
of Macon by Thu afternoon.

The latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center is giving the
aforementioned tropical wave a 30% chance of cyclone development
through the next week. The latest model guidance has shifted this
feature farther to the S, but it is too early to say whether this
will persist. We will continue to monitor the wave over the coming
days. For now, the main impact from this system looks to be
increasing shower and thunderstorm chances late in the workweek and
into next weekend as precipitable water values increase across the
area. /SEC

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 756 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Scattered SHRA/TSRA is ongoing across portions of far north and
east GA, and are expected to gradually diminish after 01Z.
Conditions are expected to remain VFR through tonight, with cu
field between 060-070 diminishing after sunset and passing high
clouds. These ceilings should remain east of all TAF sites, but
some scattered MVFR clouds could spread to MCN/AHN around
daybreak. Another cu field is expected on Monday afternoon, but
chances for SHRA/TSRA are too low for TAF mention at this time.
Low ceilings will be possible overnight in portions of far east
Georgia. Winds through the period are expected to be primarily SE
at 5-10 kts.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium confidence on early morning low clouds.
High confidence on all other elements.

King

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  90  68  89 /  10  20  10   0
Atlanta         74  93  71  89 /  20  10  10   0
Blairsville     67  86  65  83 /  20  40  20   0
Cartersville    73  93  71  90 /  20  20  10   0
Columbus        74  95  71  92 /  20  10  10  10
Gainesville     72  89  69  87 /  10  20  10   0
Macon           72  93  68  92 /  20  10  10  10
Rome            73  95  71  92 /  20  20  10   0
Peachtree City  72  93  68  89 /  10  10   0   0
Vidalia         74  93  70  92 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...96
LONG TERM....SEC
AVIATION...King