736
FXUS62 KFFC 061103
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
703 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024



...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 420 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Key Messages:

  - Another Heat Advisory is in effect from 11am until 8 PM today.
    Heat indices of 105 degrees or higher will be possible within
    the advisory.

  - Frontal boundary will push into the area and stall near the ATL
    metro. Areas to the north will be hot, areas to the south hot and
    humid. Afternoon Tstorms likely to the south of the boundary.

Forecast:

Rainfall and thunderstorms have come to an end in most locations
with the exception of eastern GA. Copious rainfall across much of
the area today combined with a subtropical airmass still in place at
the surface means we have some haze and potential fog issues
starting to crop up in a few places. Any places we do see haze or
fog will burn off very quickly with the morning sun, and these
issues should be patchy at best.

Aloft, a longwave trough is set up across the northern Great Plains
and upper midwest with embedded shortwave/jetstreak moving through
the northeast. This shortwave has attendant low that is driving
"cold" front (it`s June, sorry, it won`t be cold) towards the CWA.
Front should slowly push in towards metro through the evening and
stall somewhere near it. This will be a bit of a demarcation line
between a warm but drier airmass to the north and warm but humid
airmass to the south. Diurnal storms are very likely to the south of
it, which puts highest chances in central and eastern GA. PoPs are
lower to the north where less moisture will be available. These
don`t look like they may be as persistent into the overnight
hours as our previous night, but some storms may continue a few
hours after sunset. Storms may be strong, but not expecting any
widespread severe given lack of shear for organization. Will never
rule out a damaging wind gust or two this time of year, however.
With PWATs still in excess of 2", storms will once again be
efficient rainfall producers and some local flash flooding will be
possible.

Otherwise, heat will be the main weather story again. To the south
of the frontal boundary, highs will surge into the 90s and dewpoints
will be well into the 70s. This will bring heat indices into the
high 100s. Some uncertainty around meeting criteria given storms
could occur early enough to limit daytime heating with rainfall and
cloud cover, but any locations that are allowed to "cook" will
certainly achieve dangerous levels of heat during the afternoon. Add
on to this that we have now seen several days of this in a row in
these locations, so more vulnerable populations have not had much
time to recover and may be even more susceptible. Heat advisory
runs just to the south of I-85 across central GA and the southern
ends of the ATL metro through 8 PM.

Tomorrow, subtropical moisture will again start to filter back into
northern GA. The good news is that heat products are looking less
likely thanks to even more numerous afternoon thunderstorms. The bad
news being the more numerous diurnal storms, though we honestly
could still use the rain. Hopefully all this will put a dent in the
developing drought conditions.

Lusk

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 420 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Humid and summerlike conditions will persist through the extended.
Upper ridging will be centered to our east over the Atlantic while
an upper trough dampens and remains to our north as it swings across
the Great Lakes into the Canadian Maritimes by midweek.
Diurnally-enhanced PoPs thus remain elevated through the week amid
the moist regime within which the forecast area remains situated.
With PWATs remaining quite high in the 2-2.5" range, locally heavy
rainfall will be probable with any slow-moving thunderstorms amid
the weak flow in place. While no widespread severe concerns are
anticipated, strong/isolated severe potential with gusty winds can`t
be ruled out each afternoon and evening.

As far as Beryl is concerned, primary impacts obviously remain
situated well to our west during the early week timeframe from
Monday into Tuesday. Guidance remains varied and confidence low
regarding the path of Beryl`s remnants thereafter, though the
potential for any enhanced moisture affecting portions of the area
by mid to late week next week will need to be monitored.

High temperatures will remain largely near climatological normals in
the low to mid 90s. Even so, with stubborn low-to-mid 70s dewpoints,
100+ degree heat index values remain likely for many areas,
especially across central and east-central Georgia.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 654 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Some transient IFR cigs are impacting metro TAF sites this
morning but should fade by 13Z. Afternoon TSRA will be possible
starting from 17Z through approx sunset as cold front approaches
metro. Low cigs possible again Sunday morning, though some
uncertainty on just how low and timing. Sunday will have diurnal
TSRA again.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium Sunday morning cigs, high all others.

Lusk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          74  92  72  89 /  30  70  50  70
Atlanta         76  94  74  90 /  20  60  50  70
Blairsville     67  88  69  84 /  20  60  50  80
Cartersville    71  94  72  92 /  10  50  40  70
Columbus        77  94  75  92 /  30  70  40  70
Gainesville     75  91  74  88 /  20  60  50  70
Macon           75  92  73  89 /  30  70  40  70
Rome            72  95  74  93 /  10  40  30  70
Peachtree City  73  94  72  90 /  20  60  50  70
Vidalia         75  91  74  90 /  50  70  40  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
GAZ027-036>039-047>051-056>062-066>076-078>086-089>098-102>113.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lusk
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...Lusk