Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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153 FXUS62 KFFC 301503 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 1103 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 ...Morning Update... .UPDATE... Issued at 1101 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 No changes to the current forecast. Convection hasn`t started just yet, however given clearing conditions would not be surprised if Cu got started in the next hour or so. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 347 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 At a glance: - Hot temperatures today with a Heat Advisory for portions of the area. - Decreasing rain chances across N GA and portions of central GA on Monday. The western portion of the upper level high pressure ridge over the area will build through Monday with the center of the high over NE TX. The increased amplitude of the ridge upstream will lead to more NW flow over the area, allowing a weak cold front to sag into the area from the NW today and tonight. A prefrontal trough is also located across Central GA. Precipitable water values across the County Warning Area (CWA) will remain near 2.25" today. Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected to develop again today. Convective initiation will be delayed by morning cloud cover. The best chance of shower and thunderstorm activity today is expected near the prefrontal trough and ahead of the approaching cold front. Lower PoPs from the Atlanta metro area to Athens should also be supported by some subsidence beneath the upper ridge. A few storms may become strong with gusty winds being the main threat. Drier and more stable air will infiltrate the area by Monday, with the best chances of showers and thunderstorms across the SE portion of the area (with likely PoPs SE of Macon). Isolated activity is expected around the Atlanta metro area with mostly dry conditions across the NW. QPF values during the short term period will be mostly less than one quarter of an inch NW of Macon, with more than an inch possible in the extreme SE. Locally higher amounts are possible, especially beneath heavier or slower moving storms. Today will be hot with high temperatures in the mid 90s across most of the CWA (with mid to upper 80s across portions of the N). Heat indices are forecast to exceed 105 across portions of the area, mainly near and SE of a Columbus to Athens line. The Heat Advisory continues for this area from midday into the early evening. Low temperatures tonight will range from the upper 60s behind the cold front across the N to the lower to mid 70s across the remainder of the area. High temperatures on Monday will range from near 80 along the NE ridgetops to the mid 90s across the S half of the area. Temperatures may reach the upper 90s in the SW (near the Columbus area). Heat indices will be lower across most of the area due to the slightly milder temperatures and drier air. However, some locations in the S may flirt with low end Heat Advisory criteria once again. /SEC && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 347 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Beginning the long term period with Tuesday, the dampened 500 mb ridge axis continues over much of the south with Georgia on the eastern periphery. Meanwhile to the north of the ridge, several troughing features attempt to deepen as they move east every couple of days through the patten. With us being just on the eastern periphery of the ridging, there is just enough vorticity that makes it to Georgia to cause daily rain chances through Wednesday into Thursday. Models are also forecasting PWATs at 2+ inches through the end of next week which are above the 90th percentile for this time of year (1.80-1.90"). This in combination with the pushes of vorticity into the area results in increased rain chances through the long term. It is also summer which means CAPE values are forecasted to be between 1000-2000 J/kg every afternoon and evening resulting in increased thunderstorm chances too. Overall a very summer like pattern. Towards the later half of the long term period (Saturday into Sunday), models are indicating a break down of the ridging pattern as a trough dips into the mid MS valley bringing a what looks to be a frontal pattern. Time will tell how this pattern evolves since it is still 7 days out. With the increased moisture, dewpoints will also be increased with values in the mid 70s through the beginning of next week. This in addition to the temps reaching into the mid to upper 90s will result in heat indices being in the 100-106 range Monday. Only minor relief from these heat indices is expected on Tuesday into Wednesday where heat indices are currently forecasted below 100, as dewpoints dip below 70 for a short time period. Moisture surges again Wednesday returning us to heat indices in the 100-105+ range through the remainder of the extended. Again overall a very summer like pattern for much of Georgia as we begin the month of July with above average temps. Hernandez && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 733 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Areas of low cigs are presently S and W of the Atlanta metro area, so will continue with FEW-SCT at around 1000 ft for the next couple of hours at metro airports. Morning multi-layered clouds will likely delay convection today, but scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon. The best chances of thunderstorms are expected S of a pre-frontal boundary from CSG to MCN. Additionally, more storms are possible along a weak cold front sagging into N GA late in the afternoon. SW-W winds will become more NW by late morning and into the afternoon. //ATL Confidence...12Z Update... Medium on morning clouds and daytime precipitation timing. High on other elements. SEC && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 73 90 68 84 / 30 20 20 20 Atlanta 75 93 71 86 / 20 20 20 20 Blairsville 66 86 63 81 / 20 20 10 10 Cartersville 71 91 70 88 / 10 10 10 10 Columbus 76 98 73 87 / 30 30 30 40 Gainesville 73 89 69 84 / 20 20 10 10 Macon 74 96 70 85 / 30 50 30 40 Rome 71 91 69 91 / 10 10 0 10 Peachtree City 73 94 69 86 / 20 20 20 20 Vidalia 76 93 72 86 / 40 80 60 60 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ024-025-027- 035>039-047>051-056-058>062-067>076-078>086-089>098-102>113. && $$ SHORT TERM...SEC LONG TERM....Hernandez AVIATION...SEC