033
FXUS63 KFGF 242335
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
635 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms may develop this afternoon into the
  early evening. Should thunderstorms develop, damaging wind
  gusts, large hail, and tornadoes will be possible.

- The next good chance for showers and storms looks to be
  Thursday night into Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

...Synopsis...
Really there is no change to the previous thinking, there is a
lot of uncertainty in how any additional storms storms may or
may not develop yet today. The first 700mb wave is located over
the Minnesota arrowhead. Another one may be showing up over
southeast North Dakota and northeast South Dakota, which will
slide into western Minnesota late this afternoon into this
evening. This area is pretty well capped, with 700mb
temperatures of +10C to +14C. At the surface, the weak low has
been holding over central to east central South Dakota, sliding
east. Again, this is in the capped area so far. There is a cold
front over this FA, which appears to be along a Langdon to
south central North Dakota line (somewhere between Bismarck and
Jamestown). There has been some weak cumulus forming along this
line. One storm about an hour ago between Bismarck and Jamestown
kind of fizzled, although it was in the capped region. Overall
it seems like storms should have a chance to fire across the
central and northern Red River Valley along this front, which
will cross into Minnesota by early evening.

...This afternoon into early evening...
The HRRR has been showing some weaker convection forming along
the cold front over the central and northern Valley late this
afternoon and early evening. By early evening, it develops a
complex of storms around the Twin Cities, which it then
transitions to a bowing line of storms as they move to the
east-southeast. There are other CAMs which still show storms
developing over the southern Valley into west central Minnesota
late this afternoon and early evening, which they eventually
track along the highway 10 corridor toward the Twin Cities this
evening. So will be watching these two potential areas (along
the cold front and from the southern Valley into west central
Minnesota) from now through early evening for convective
development. As for parameters along and ahead of the cold
front, temperatures have risen into the low to mid 80s over
northeast North Dakota with dewpoints in the low 70s. The SPC
meso page is showing SBCAPE values over 5000 J/kg with effective
shear around 35 knots. As for negatives for development along
the cold front, it is not really that strong (maybe more of a
dryline or trough) and there is no low level jet support in
this area. The low level jet should support any storms that take
off along the highway 10 corridor toward the Twin Cities.

...Thursday night into Friday...
Another fairly deep 700mb wave tracks into the Northern Plains
during this time frame, with all ensemble solutions showing a
fairly widespread footprint for convection. WPC did mention that
they may add a marginal risk for excessive rainfall up into this
area to cover this potential. Still a ways off, so will leave it
at that for now.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 635 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

The primary impact to aviation this evening will be scattered
thunderstorms along a cold front stretching from Lake of the
Woods southwestward to around Cooperstown. Locations potentially
seeing VCTS or TSRA will be KTVF, KBJI, and KFAR primarily,
with lower chances at KGFK and KDVL. Otherwise, VFR conditions
prevail outside of thunderstorm activity with mostly clear skies
west of the cold front.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Godon
AVIATION...Lynch