703
FXUS63 KFGF 211447
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
947 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The probability for hazardous weather impacts is low.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 940 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

No adjustments made to the forecast this update. Widely
scattered light rain showers will continue in northwest
Minnesota through the remainder of the morning.

Gusty northwest winds behind the front will start to increase
late morning into early afternoon. Gusts this afternoon will be
in the 25-35 mph range, highest in the Red River Valley and
eastern North Dakota.

UPDATE
Issued at 632 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Few showers are still on radar but very little if any have
reached the ground. At the very worst there may be a light
sprinkle in some areas this morning. By this afternoon all
showers should be complete. Will be tweaking pops to reflect
expectations.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

...Synopsis...

Things are progressing as forecast. 500 mb wave is near the
SK/MB/ND border at 08z and this will move east-northeast today
and be in NW Ontario north of Kenora by 21z today. The majority
of the showers will move ENE with it with lingering showers this
morning near the Canadian border. Cluster of showers and a few
t-storms continue to move NNE thru NW MN from Red Lake Falls to
Bemidji and Red Lake and these will continue to move toward
Baudette area by dawn.

As short wave departs, 850 mb moisture remains high enough to
keep clouds or to develop CU over NE ND and NW MN thru the day.
Lesser cloud cover and more sun WC MN and SE ND.

Look for a period of windy conditions 15-21z period behind the
cold front which will move through early to mid morning. WNW
winds look to gust to near 35 kts with mixed layer to around 810
mb from sounding at KGFK. Sustained values look to be 20-25
kts. So overall just below advisory levels. It will be windiest
in E ND and less so as you go farther east.

Highs today low 60s northwest (DVL) to low 70s far
east/southeast (BJI/FFM) parts of the fcst area.


Skies clear tonight. High pressure center will be more in
western and central ND and thus coolest temps there. Expect
widespread 40-45 degree temps tonight, with locally colder spots
in the mid-upper 30s. Worst case could see a bit of frost late
tonight in a few colder spots such as Langdon or Cando but
doesnt appear to be sufficiently likely to warrant any headline
or mention in the weather grids.

Sunday and beyond thru next week is looking very nice. Warming u
with highs 75-80 much of next week as 500 mb ridge builds over
the area, esp that Wed-Fri period. A 500 mb short wave to bring
some mid clouds Tuesday afternoon/night but at this time any
shower chance should remain just north of the border.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 632 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

VFR conditions through this TAF period. Some showers on radar
but they dont seem to be making it to the ground so potential
virga at the high to mid level until 18z. Some clouds are
expected to move through mid day today as the trough works its
way through our area. Ceilings are expected to be at 4000ft at
the lowest today through the northern valley with higher
ceilings further south. By 00z ceilings should be clear or at
20,000ft or above. Winds are expected to pick up around 15z with
gust up to 25-30 kts and die off around 23z.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CJ/MM
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...MM