756
FXUS63 KFGF 061714
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1214 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty winds up to 45 MPH forecasted today in eastern North
 Dakota and portions of northwestern Minnesota.

- Precipitation chances across the area at various points this
  weekend and beyond.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

The wind advisory has been expanded to include portions of Lakes
Country due to marginally advisory-level winds. Impacts today
remain isolated to the gusty winds. A few rain showers may reach
the surface this afternoon, although confidence is very low
thanks to the ongoing dry air near the surface. Regardless,
impacts will be low.

UPDATE
Issued at 923 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Winds continue to increase this morning with sustained winds
between 20 and 25 knots, gusting up to 35. Winds will continue
to increase through the day today. Intermittent light showers
remain possible (20% chance) out in northwest Minnesota, but
with dry air near the surface, impacts will remain limited.

UPDATE
Issued at 636 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Clouds continue to sink into the area from Canada this morning.
Isolated precipitation has been picked up by surface
observations, but nothing widespread. The main chances for
showers this afternoon will be in northwestern Minnesota.
Forecast remains on track

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...Synopsis...

A persistent layer of clouds is advecting SE from Canada this
morning, which guidance suggests will stay throughout the day in
eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota. A low-level jet is
over our area today, contributing to gusty winds in the area. This
LLJ should propagate east into Friday and the weekend. A 500mb ridge
will build in the west, putting us in NW flow from the weekend
onward.

...Gusty Winds...

The aforementioned low-level jet combined with PGF in the area at
the surface will bring in gustier conditions today. Despite cloud
cover in a lot of the valley, it looks like we could still see winds
advect down to the surface around 30 MPH sustained. We will
definitely hit that in the Devils Lake Basin, but given that
guidance has been under-performing winds the past few days,
decided to go with a wind advisory from the Devils Lake Basin to
the MN Red River Valley. Wind gusts up to 45 MPH are
forecasted, and majority of members in hi-res guidance show
sustained criteria (30 MPH or greater) occurring in areas west
of the escarpment in North Dakota.

...Precipitation Chances...

Showers are going to be possible this Saturday, about a 30 - 50%
chance in northwestern MN. However, the chances for greater than or
equal to 0.25" in this area are only 10% or less. Monday and Tuesday
looks to be next chance for precipitation in the area, but chances
for greater than or equal to 0.25" are <20% this day too. These
chances could change, as this system is 5 days away, so a lot of
variables are still subject to change.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

VFR to isolated MVFR cigs will continue through the afternoon.
Isolated -RA may arise at BJI or TVF, but impacts to flight
categories are not expected. Winds will remain elevated through
the day today with no significant changes in direction (greater
than 30 degrees). Overall, aviation impacts today will be
primarily tied to wind gusts pushing past 30 knots for all TAF
sites. This will improve after 00z.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
MN...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MNZ001>004-007-
     029-030-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Perroux
DISCUSSION...AH
AVIATION...Perroux