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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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402 FXUS63 KFGF 091741 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1241 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms Monday, minimal impacts expected. - Chance for severe thunderstorms on Wednesday; confidence is low for specific impacts. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Temperatures this afternoon range from the middle 50s near Lake of the Woods to the upper 60s in the southern Red River Valley. Cloud cover remains in place across much of northwestern Minnesota. Overall, the forecast remains on track this afternoon, with only minimal changes needed. UPDATE Issued at 1008 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Northwest flow prevails this morning with cloud cover working slowly southward into northwest Minnesota. Temperatures are coolest near the Northwest Angle, where low 50s are still being observed. Elsewhere, temperatures are generally in the upper 50s to low 60s. UPDATE Issued at 627 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Looks like the clouds from Ontario will make their way slowly into the northwestern part of Minnesota. Otherwise, forecast remains on track for a quiet day today. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 333 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 ...Synopsis... Mid-level clouds are creeping into the area from the west and the northeast this morning. No precipitation is expected with these. The synoptic pattern is marked by several chances for showers and thunderstorms. Firstly, a shortwave enters the area Monday into Tuesday, followed by a trough mid-week with a mid-level jet over our area. UL ridging builds in post trough for the weekend. ...Monday Precipitation... Monday into Tuesday morning, showers and embedded thunderstorms in a linear mode are expected from this shortwave. Moisture is more readily available, with PWATs 1.25" to 1.5" in the area, but instability continues to struggle as it did in previous guidance. As for QPF, there`s a 40 - 60% chance of greater than or equal to 0.25", but <15% chance of >1" through Tuesday morning. ...Wednesday Severe Chances... The next system to talk about brings the possibility of severe back into our area. A deep trough with corresponding mid-level jet is expected to traverse the area Wednesday morning into Thursday. Guidance is struggling to decipher mode, impacts, and timing with this. This could be why the chances for severe have markedly decreased since yesterday, with SBCAPE exceeding 1000 J/kg now only at 35% in a small area in the southern Red River Valley. Regardless, there is still the possibility for strong to severe thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday morning, and hopefully as the CAMs capture the event in their timeframe, we will have more consistency and answers. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 MVFR conditions are being observed intermittently at KBJI and KTVF with VFR CIGs elsewhere. North winds are expected to continue through the remainder of the afternoon before becoming light and variable overnight. Winds shift to the south to southeast heading into Monday. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Lynch DISCUSSION...AH AVIATION...Lynch