Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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973 FXUS63 KFGF 251449 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 949 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms over the Devils Lake basin Thursday evening, and a lower chance for severe thunderstorms elsewhere Thursday night into Friday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 949 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 A few clouds dot the skies across eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota this morning. Could see some showers and possibly rogue thunderstorms from Canada this afternoon, but confidence in severe weather is low. Forecast remains on track. UPDATE Issued at 635 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Clear skies and light southwest winds are prevailing across eastern ND and northwest MN this morning. Winds are still expected to increase from the west-northwest with increasing daytime mixing under mostly sunny skies as winds aloft increase. There are a few showers that have been developing but quickly dissipating near our far southeast CWA border (near the ND/SD state line). Much more stable air is in place as the main instability axis is now south of us and drier BL conditions are in place, resulting in these showers struggling to hold together as they approach. I could still see a few sprinkles or a light shower in the far southern RRV this morning. This update was to capture near term trends, otherwise forecast is on track. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 356 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 ...Synopsis... Westerly flow aloft is in place today, and while there will be a series of progressive troughs and ridges, the main pattern will tend to resemble zonal/quasi-zonal. Height falls behind the trough passages should bring a period of below average temperatures at times, though actual highs are complicated by timing of frontal zones and precipitation in this pattern. There is strong consensus regarding the mean evolution of the pattern, with variance in the smaller details common to progressive patterns like this. ...Today-Tonight... The main frontal zone is almost completely out of our area with much lower Tds and drier air aloft helping stabilize conditions. However, near the frontal zone there is still an axis of 500-1000 J/KG elevated instability near the ND/SD through mid morning which may support a few elevated showers/non severe thunderstorms in our far southern RRV. Westerly BL flow ahead of the next mid level wave keeps an axis of warm 850 temps in place so we should see some recovery in temps (once again warmer than average), despite the post frontal air mass in place. Lower Tds and marginal lapse rates keep potential instability minimal in our area ahead of this next shortwave rough later in the day. HREF supports a period of elevated light showers (maybe a rumble of thunder) this evening through Wednesday morning. ...Thursday-Friday Severe Threat/Rain... A more organized trough develops out of the Pacific northwest with a brief amplification of shortwave ridging over the Northern Plains. This allows a period of SW flow to build back into the northern plains. The warm sector/instability axis favored to our west based on latest ensemble clusters, and this region would favor initiation/better severe potential. However, as the mid/upper trough moves east Thursday this axis will begin to slide east and depending on the timing, may support an elevated severe risk into our west Thursday evening. Widespread showers/embedded thunderstorms then overspread our region, while the frontal zone shifts south and east through Friday. Depending on cloud cover/daytime destabilization, this could act as a focus for new severe thunderstorm development, but highly conditional on clearing/frontal timing. GEFS CSU machine learning (and NBM CWASP) highlight the low (5%) severe potential late Thursday mainly in our west and in our far east-southeast Friday. Regarding rain amounts: Within more organized convective elements probs for 1"+ total rainfall will be expected with favored region in global ensembles near the US/Canada border. There isn`t currently a signal for more organized higher totals that would create concerns for more than localized runoff issues. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 635 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through this evening across eastern ND and northwest MN, with increasing winds from the west-northwest midday. These winds should start to shift more to the north and decrease (less than 10kt) as the sun sets. Isolated showers are expected in far southeast ND this morning, but confidence is low they will move within the vicinity of KFAR. Better shower chances arrive with a disturbance this evening/overnight tonight but coverage/chances (20-30%) are too low for TAF inclusion. As this system passes all guidance is showing a signal for MVFR ceilings to develop in the 6-12Z period tonight/Wednesday morning northwest to southeast, with a low chance for IFR. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...AH/DJR DISCUSSION...DJR AVIATION...DJR