171
FXUS63 KFGF 301911
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
211 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a low chance for a strong thunderstorm to move into
  the Devils Lake basin late tonight.

- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms
  Monday afternoon and evening across much of the forecast area,
  with a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms along
  and south of Interstate 94.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible
  through mid week. A system may then bring numerous showers and
  thunderstorms to parts of the Northern Plains on Independence
  Day, with a low chance for severe thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 211 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

...Synopsis...
Brief 500mb ridging passes through the FA tonight, as the next
700mb shortwave pushes into northwest North Dakota on its heels.
On Tuesday, it appears there will multiple waves across the
Northern Plains around the parent 700mb low over central
Manitoba. These various waves will pass through the FA until
Tuesday night, when the low finally pushes into Ontario. There
should be somewhat of a break on Wednesday, before the next wave
arrives for Thursday into Friday morning.

...Late tonight...
Storms are expected to fire over eastern Montana this evening,
then congeal into a complex that should reach the Montana and
western North Dakota border around 06z Monday. By that point, a
low level jet of 40 to 50 knots should help sustain it as it
moves east-northeast through sunrise. There is also decent 0-6km
effective shear (40 to 50 knots as well), but overall
instability should weaken as these storms reach the Devils Lake
region late. The HREF still doesn`t show any UH tracks across
North Dakota with these storms (they all remain in Montana).
Despite that, SPC hasn`t changed their outlook area, which
shows a marginal risk for severe storms across the western
Devils Lake region (and western North Dakota). Since we have
been messaging a low chance for a strong storm, see no reason to
change that.

...Monday afternoon and evening...
Parameters get pretty muddy for this period. Per the paragraph
above, a weakening convective complex should be moving into
eastern North Dakota (and more so northeast North Dakota) Monday
morning. Therefore there will be extensive cloud cover across
the FA to start the day. Moisture values will only increase,
with surface dewpoints rising into the low to mid 60s along and
west of the Valley, and precipitable water values climbing over
1.50 inches. However, the main surface features look like they
will remain over the western Dakotas, closer to the main 700mb
wave. Despite that, the low level jet looks like it will flare
up again during the day hours, and even strengthen to 50 to 55
knots along and east of the Valley. Overall, this looks pretty
disjointed. Models are showing it remaining cloudy, with the
clouds actually lowering in height during the day, so good
instability would be lacking. Once again, any sustained UH
tracks per the HREF stay to the west and south of this FA. Other
than being cloudy, Monday looks windy as well, and would remain
on the cool side.

...Mid week...
As mentioned above, another good 700mb shortwave looks to cross
through the Northern Plains Thursday into Friday morning. The
highest precipitation chances may arrive Thursday afternoon and
evening, putting a damper on July 4th activities. This is still
a good 4 days out, so stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Overall, a pretty low impact set of TAFs until late tonight.
The main thing worth mentioning is that a decaying convective
complex may reach portions of the FA around or after sunrise
Monday. Not too confident there will still be too much thunder
left with it, so have mentioned VCSH at a few sites for now. If
the complex remains a little stronger than anticipated, this
could be VCTS. If later shifts get a little more confident, they
can adjust this as need be. Guidance has also been showing
stratus (MVFR ceilings) overtaking the FA during the day Monday
(mostly beyond this TAF period). Went with an MVFR ceiling at
KDVL as a starter, but these MVFR ceilings may expand to other
areas as well, around or after 18z Monday. Finally, wind speeds
will really begin to increase slightly before or after sunrise.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Godon
AVIATION...Godon