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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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281 FXUS65 KFGZ 272110 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 210 PM MST Thu Jun 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Showers and storms will continue, mostly along and north of the Mogollon Rim today. Activity decreases for Friday and Saturday with only isolated storms possible. Moisture and thunderstorms chances increase again from Sunday into next week. && .DISCUSSION...Another active day of convection in underway across northern Arizona this afternoon. Ample amounts of moisture in place are combining with the passage of a weak disturbance and enhanced wind shear to generate scattered to numerous showers and storms, mainly focused along and north of the Mogollon Rim and Coconino Plateau. The best wind shear available to help with storm organization and longevity is located across the far north along the Utah border, thus this will be the most likely are for severe storms. Greater storm motions today of generally 15-20 mph will limit the flash flood threat somewhat, but storms that train over the same areas may still cause flooding. Most of the CAMs show support for convection to continue across the northeast through the evening hours before coming to an end. The trough moving through the northern Rockies today will usher in some drier air for the next couple of days, but the drying trend looks less pronounced. Precipitable water values don`t drop quite as low as seen previously. This means we will still see some isolated afternoon thunderstorms, perhaps as west as Flagstaff. Less available moisture will result in more of a gusty wind threat and much less of a flash flood threat. By Saturday, high pressure will again build back into the region and start the pull of moisture northward. The best chances for showers and storms will be over the White Mountains. Southerly flow is forecast to increase and draw moisture northward Sunday through next week leading to increasing precipitation chances during this period. The question of how long the moisture will last is questionable at best right now. Extended range models show support for a strong high circulation to build over the west coast, which often results in a drier northerly flow for Arizona. Stay tuned. && .AVIATION...Thursday 27/18Z through Friday 28/18Z...Isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA north and east of a Seligman to Show Low (KSOW) line 19Z-03Z. SHRA may linger near Chinle/Window Rock (KRQE) through 09Z. Brief MVFR conditions and gusty, erratic winds to 40 kts possible in and around TS. SW winds 10-15 kts with gusts up to 20-25 kts before 03Z, then becoming light and variable. OUTLOOK...Friday 28/18Z through Sunday 30/18Z...TSRA/SHRA possible east of a KPGA-KINW-KJTC line from 19Z Friday-03Z Saturday. Another round of TSRA/SHRA possible in vicinity of KSOW/KJTC on Saturday. Winds SW 10-15 ks on Friday, subsiding to 5-10 kts on Saturday. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today through Saturday...Scattered showers and storms along and north of the Mogollon Rim this afternoon, with heavy rain, hail, and gusty winds possible in the stronger storms. Expect a drying trend Friday and Saturday with a few isolated storms possible. Warm temperatures with breezy southwest winds 10-20 mph each day. Sunday through Tuesday...Moisture and thunderstorm chances begin to increase from Sunday into next week. Warm temperatures with southwest winds 10-15 mph each day. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...MCT AVIATION...MCT FIRE WEATHER...MCT For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff