572
FXUS65 KFGZ 021642
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
942 AM MST Tue Jul 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Shower and thunderstorm activity will start to fade out
today and Wednesday, as drier air moves in from the north. Expect
scattered coverage today, but mainly south of I-40 and east of I-17.
Activity becomes more isolated by Wednesday, mostly over the White
Mountains. From Thursday onward, expect dry weather and rising
temperatures. A very hot Fourth of July weekend is on tap and it
will continue into next week.

&&

.UPDATE...Our expected drying period has begun this morning with
winds shifted to the west-northwest and PWATs almost half of what
they were this time yesterday. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are still forecast from now through early this
evening, but confined to locations east of I-17 and south of I-40.
Temperatures will also be on the rise as high pressure builds and
strengthens towards the west. The forecast remains in good shape
with no changes needed at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /352 AM MST/...A complicated pattern over the
southwestern United States can be summed up simply, we are going
to dry out and heat up in the coming days.

The trough that has been to our north for several days is pulling
eastward tonight, with active convection still forming ahead of the
trough axis. Drier and more subsident air behind the trough is
already filtering into northwestern Arizona tonight and will
continue to seep southeastward over the next few days. The trough
will also push the subtropical high east as it moves away, with a
stronger high moving into the western United States, from the
Pacific, heading into next weekend.

This pattern will shut off our moisture source and the Pacific high
will relentlessly push dry, warm and stable air from north to south
across our CWA. Enough moisture remains today for more showers and
thunderstorms across our southern zones, roughly from east-central
Yavapai County to the White Mtns. This area shrinks even more on
Wednesday, really just the White Mtns at that point.

From Thursday onward, we are dry and start to really heat up. The
Pacific high stays to our west for a few days, but by the weekend
and early next week, it moves into western Arizona. This could be a
very hot pattern, record heat. Dangerous heat impacts may develop
late in our forecast period, stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday 02/12Z through Wednesday 03/12Z...SHRA/TSRA
possible south and east of a KPRC-KFLG-KRQE line, 19Z-04Z. Brief
MVFR conditions and gusty, erratic winds possible near TS. VFR
conditions otherwise expected with W/SW winds 5-10 kts.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 03/12Z through Friday 05/12Z...Mainly VFR
conditions, with a slight chance for MVFR in SHRA/TSRA near
KSOW/KJTC Wednesday afternoon. Winds W around 10 kts on Wednesday,
becoming N/NW on Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Wednesday...Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are expected mainly along the Mogollon Rim and White
Mountains today, then again just in the Whites on Wednesday. Winds
west/southwest 5-10 mph, becoming west 10-15 mph on Wednesday.

Thursday through Saturday...Hot and dry conditions are expected,
outside of a slight chance for showers in the White Mountains on
Saturday. Warming temperatures with northwest through northeast
winds 10-15 mph. Afternoon RH values 5-15%, with overnight
recoveries 20-40%.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...LaGuardia/Peterson
AVIATION...Humphreys
FIRE WEATHER...MAS

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff