Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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713 FXUS65 KFGZ 281545 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 845 AM MST Fri Jun 28 2024 .SYNOPSIS...A lull in shower and thunderstorm development will arrive today and Saturday, before moisture returns and brings an active pattern back to the area by early next week. && .UPDATE...No forecast updates are needed this morning. The FGZ sounding early this morning shows moisture has decreased in the mid/upper levels. There still remains enough moisture to spark isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and this is consistent with the CAM guidance this morning. Activity should remain generally from around Sedona and Flagstaff north and eastward. Much less of a flood threat is expected today. && .PREV DISCUSSION /434 AM MST/...Drier and more stable air will continue to stream into Arizona from the west today and into the weekend. This is due to a persistent trough over the Pacific Northwest, which has turned mid-level flow back to westerly. This and increased boundary layer winds are steadily mixing out our boundary layer moisture. Small variations in the northern stream trough will allow flow to turn more southerly at times over the next several days. These variations will keep the moisture pool fairly close by and will not completely scour us out. Because of this, we are keeping low-grade PoPs in today and Saturday, before ramping back up again by Sunday. By Sunday or Monday, the northern stream retreats and allows the ridge to rebuild to our east and flow once again will reverse and become southeasterly. Moisture returns enough to ramp back into a low-medium grade Monsoon PoP scheme for most of next week. Will have to watch the potential at the end of next week for an abnormally warm and western positioned high pressure cell, this will end precipitation chances if it evolves as progged. && .AVIATION...Friday 28/12Z through Saturday 29/12Z...SW winds today, 5-15kts gusting 20-25 in the afternoon. Overall drier weather expected across northern Arizona, but isolated -SHRA/TS is still possible mainly along and north of a line from KSOW, KPAN, KFLG. More gusty, erratic winds should be expected near these. Light winds return again after 03Z. OUTLOOK...Saturday 29/12Z through Monday 01/12Z...SW winds will persist through the weekend into next week, but becoming lighter Sunday. Mainly dry weather Saturday. SHRA and TS will start to increase in coverage and spread back west Sunday into next week with return of Monsoon. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today through Saturday...Notably drier weather expected both days with only light, isolated showers or high based thunderstorms from the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains northward. Afternoon RHs remain elevated today, then some locations at lower elevations will fall into the teens Saturday. Overnight recoveries remain good. Breezy southwest winds 10-20 mph both days. Sunday through Tuesday...Moisture and thunderstorm chances begin to increase again from Sunday into next week. Southwest winds 10-15 mph each day. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...MCT/Peterson AVIATION...RKR FIRE WEATHER...RKR For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff