Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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671 FXUS65 KFGZ 281101 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 400 AM MST Fri Jun 28 2024 .SYNOPSIS...A lull in shower and thunderstorm development will arrive today and Saturday, before moisture returns and brings an active pattern back to the area by early next week. && .DISCUSSION...Drier and more stable air will continue to stream into Arizona from the west today and into the weekend. This is due to a persistent trough over the Pacific Northwest, which has turned mid-level flow back to westerly. This and increased boundary layer winds are steadily mixing out our boundary layer moisture. Small variations in the northern stream trough will allow flow to turn more southerly at times over the next several days. These variations will keep the moisture pool fairly close by and will not completely scour us out. Because of this, we are keeping low-grade PoPs in today and Saturday, before ramping back up again by Sunday. By Sunday or Monday, the northern stream retreats and allows the ridge to rebuild to our east and flow once again will reverse and become southeasterly. Moisture returns enough to ramp back into a low-medium grade Monsoon PoP scheme for most of next week. Will have to watch the potential at the end of next week for an abnormally warm and western positioned high pressure cell, this will end precipitation chances if it evolves as progged. && .AVIATION...Friday 28/06Z through Saturday 29/06Z...Isolated showers and thunderstorms lingering through 12Z from KSOW to the Four Corners. Isolated showers and thunderstorms then redevelop after 18Z along and north of a KGCN-KINW-KSOW line. Erratic winds to 40 kts possible in and around showers/storms. Otherwise, light winds overnight becoming southwest at 5-15 kts gusting to 20 kts Friday afternoon. Winds diminishing Friday evening. OUTLOOK...Saturday 29/06Z through Monday 01/06Z...Isolated showers and thunderstorms on Saturday will become more widespread on Sunday. Erratic winds to 40 kts possible in and around showers/storms. Otherwise, afternoon southwest winds 5-15 kts gusting to 20 kts with light winds at night. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today through Saturday...Notably drier weather expected both days with only light, isolated showers or high based thunderstorms over the LCR and White Mountains. Afternoon RHs remain elevated today, then some locations at lower elevations will fall into the teens Saturday. Overnight recoveries remain good. Breezy southwest winds 10-20 mph both days. Sunday through Tuesday...Moisture and thunderstorm chances begin to increase again from Sunday into next week. Southwest winds 10-15 mph each day. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Peterson AVIATION...McCollum FIRE WEATHER...RKR For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff