Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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089 FXUS65 KFGZ 270913 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 213 AM MST Thu Jun 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS...The daily chance for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will continue today. Activity decreases for Friday and Saturday, and then slowly ramps up again from Sunday into next week. && .DISCUSSION...One final day of monsoonal showers and storms are expected today. Activity should be concentrated along and northeast of the Mogollon Rim. Meanwhile, a trough is moving eastward across the NW U.S. This trough is what`s shifting the high driving our monsoonal precipitation. While the high shifts, afternoon winds will be increasing this afternoon and tomorrow with gusts 20-30 mph. Friday will be significantly drier than recent days. CAMs do still show some isolated activity to the east, including over the Navajo and Hopi Nations. Overall moisture availability is significantly lower with these, so showers will predominately generate virga and thunderstorms will be high based. Drier weather will presist into Saturday, but isolated shower and storm activity is expected over the White Mountains. During this period of drier weather, daytime temperatures are expected to warm some. Sunday going into next week sees high pressure building back. This will translate into gradually increasing shower and storm chances pushing back west for the end of the weekend, into next week. Each day next week will bring shower and storm chances, but with fluctuations in coverage and intensity. && .AVIATION...Thursday 27/06Z through Friday 28/06Z...Expect another round of scattered thunderstorms along and north of a KIGM-KPRC-KSOW line Thursday afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions away from storms. Light winds overnight will become southwest at 10-20 kts on Thursday, but could gust up to 40 kts in the vicinity of thunderstorms. Diminishing winds Thursday evening. OUTLOOK...Friday 28/06Z through Sunday 30/06Z...VFR conditions are forecast with a near shutdown of storm activity on Friday and Saturday. look for afternoon southwest winds at 10-20 kts each day. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Friday...Scattered showers and storms along and north of the Mogollon Rim this afternoon, with isolated storms possible again on Friday over eastern Arizona. Gusty, erratic winds, heavy rainfall, and hail possible in any stronger storms. Warm temperatures with breezy southwest winds 10-20 mph each day. Saturday through Monday...Isolated storms remain in the White Mountains on Saturday, with coverage then gradually increasing across the state for Sunday and Monday. Warm temperatures with southwest winds 10-15 mph each day. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...RKR AVIATION...McCollum FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff