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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD
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545 FXUS63 KFSD 281117 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 617 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rivers across the area have crested or are presently at crest. Expect rivers to slowly trend downward, even with any rain early this morning. - A small threat for severe weather exists this afternoon over parts of northwest IA. An isolated strong storm will also be possible in central SD this evening. - Below normal temperatures continue today into Monday, with the coolest temperatures Saturday through Monday. - Stronger westerly flow aloft develops Monday through the end of the week which should bring a bit busier pattern next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 305 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Showers and thunderstorms will roll across the area this morning, but severe weather is unlikely as the convection moves into more stable air. Two more pieces of energy move through the area today. One will be over mainly northeast NE into northwest IA early this afternoon. Any severe weather will remain isolated and somewhat limited as the timing of the lower level front moves through fairly quickly. Another piece of energy is the stronger upper level low pressure which will dip into northern SD tonight and swing through a stronger cold front. Some very isolated stronger thunderstorms will be possible with the surge of colder air and wind would be the main threat. Instability is not overly high at around 500 J/kg but very strong mid and upper level winds could support some stronger wind gusts at the surface. Temperatures will warm a touch ahead of this colder surge with highs from the upper 70s to lower 80s. High pressure slides through the area this weekend bringing well below normal temperatures Saturday and Sunday. Highs Saturday will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s with highs Sunday in the lower to mid 70s. Low temperatures on Sunday morning may fall into the 45 to 50 degree range in some locations. While temperatures remain below normal on Monday, they will rebound back into the mid 70s to lower 80s in most locations, a touch warmer in central SD. This is in response to a trough digging into the Northern Rockies. Instability does try to rebound into the area, but similar to yesterday we may see mainly sub severe showers and thunderstorms late Sunday night into Monday, then a better chance for severe weather Monday night as instability tries to build up the Western High Plains into the area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain Tuesday with the next better chance for storms Thursday. Temperatures will likely rebound back closer to normal but may come up just a touch short in many locations. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 615 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible through the evening, with the better chances across northeast NE and northwest IA. A few stronger storms will be possible in northwest IA this afternoon. Otherwise, some patchy MVFR ceilings will be possible through about early afternoon, but confidence on timing of these ceilings is low and for now they look to be short lived at any on location. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...08 AVIATION...08