303
FXUS63 KFSD 062332
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
632 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy northwest winds expected to continue this afternoon,
  with gusts between 40 to 55 MPH possible.

- Scattered showers and storms return Friday, with a few
  capable of becoming strong to severe along the Missouri River
  during the afternoon/evening.

- Chances for above normal temperatures return late next week
  as a ridge of high pressure builds across the south.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

CURRENT THROUGH TONIGHT: Breezy northwesterly winds continue
across the region, with latest observations showing sunny skies,
highs in the 70s, and gusts ranging between 40 to 50 MPH. Should see
these conditions continue through the late afternoon, with gusts
forecast to quickly subside near sunset. As such, believe the current
Wind Advisory remains in good shape, which is set to expire at 7 PM.
Otherwise, look for light and variable winds to prevail overnight
under clear skies, with lows falling into the upper 40s to lower 50s.

FRIDAY: Winds turn south/southeasterly Friday as sfc high pressure
expands into a ridge across our area, with highs forecast to rise
into the upper 70s to lower 80s. This will be short-lived though, as
a sfc low pressure quickly develops on the backside of the ridge.
WAA ahead of this feature will result in scattered showers and
storms across the region for most of the day, with a few strong to
severe storms possible along the MO River Valley during the evening.
While there is ample bulk shear in place (>40kt), overall
instability remains rather meager (<1000J/kg). Thus, believe quarter
size hail, damaging gusts between 50-60 MPH, and brief heavy
downpours would be the primary hazards. In regard to rainfall
totals, still looking at anywhere from a few hundredths to a tenth or
so.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: Another sfc high pressure slides over the
region Saturday allowing dry conditions to prevail through the
weekend. Afternoon highs will be a touch cooler during this time,
with temperatures largely in the low to mid 70s under partly cloudy
skies. North/northwest winds will also remain fairly light, so get
outside and enjoy the weather if you can!

MONDAY AND BEYOND: Model consistency begins to wane heading into the
new week as a pronounced upper level low dives southeastward across
the Northern Plains. Still quite a bit of variability in place,
though the general consensus is that showers and storms will be
possible Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. Don`t want to
speculate too much though, so will continue to leave model blend of
PoPs as is until confidence increases. Otherwise, should see largely
dry conditions and above normal temperatures prevail for the
remainder of the extended period as mid-level ridging expands across
the central Plains.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 631 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

VFR conditions are expected for the TAF period. Windy conditions are
coming to an end this evening as mixing begins to wane. Strong
northwest winds will gust up to 20-30+ knots for a few hours this
evening before winds go nearly calm around midnight tonight. Winds
will turn southerly tomorrow and be weaker with speeds up to around
10 knots and gusts up to 15-20 knots. Showers are possible tomorrow
during the daylight hours across most of the area. As such, have
added VCSH to all TAFs. Lighting and thunder are also possible with
the showers but confidence is not high enough to include in a TAF at
this time. The southerly winds and showers will finish out the TAF
period.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for SDZ038>040-
     053>056-060>062-066-067-071.
MN...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ071-072-080-
     081-089-090-097-098.
IA...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for IAZ001>003-
     012>014-020>022-031-032.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SST
AVIATION...Meyers