436
FXUS64 KFWD 282347
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
647 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Tonight through Saturday Night/

Mid level ridging will remain firmly in control of the weather
across North Texas through the weekend with hot and humid
conditions expected to continue. The current Heat Advisory and
Excessive Heat Warning will remain unchanged with heat indices
again expected to top 110 degrees in some locations. There will be
a weak cold front to our north across Oklahoma where convection
will likely be scattered throughout the late afternoon/evening.
Some of this may drift toward the Red River late Saturday night.
Otherwise, we`ll be watching a few storms to the east/southeast
associated with the sea breeze which may try to sneak into our far
southern/eastern counties. PoPs will generally remain 10% or less.
The hot and humid weather will continue into Sunday.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 211 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024/
Update:

No major changes were made with the latest long term
forecast. Hot and dry conditions will prevail across North and
Central Texas through next week, with heat indices ranging between
105 to 110. Low storm chances remain for our northeastern
counties. It is totally possible that rain chances will be pulled
out completely by Sunday as it seems increasingly likely that the
associated surface boundary will stall north of us in Oklahoma.

Reeves

Previous Discussion:
/Saturday Night Through Next Week/

The ongoing summer heat will be the main headline in the extended
period, with rain chances remaining near zero through next week.
The only exception to this will be on Sunday as showers and storms
develop near a weak front in Oklahoma. Some of this activity may
skirt areas near the Red River, but this will largely depend on
how far south the front ends up stalling. Otherwise, rain-free
weather is expected, with daily temperatures ranging from the mid
90s to near 104 degrees. Warm and muggy mornings in the mid 70s
to low 80s will continue. Fortunately, slightly lower humidity
should keep heat index values a bit lower than we`re currently
seeing. However, we`ll still meet Heat Advisory criteria across
most of the area each day, so a daily extension of the ongoing
advisory can be expected for the next week.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

VFR is expected to prevail through most of the period with south
winds 10-15 kt. Some brief MVFR cigs may be possible across North
Texas Saturday morning and we`ll keep the TEMPO in for a few
hours. Otherwise, no significant aviation concerns are expected.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    81  99  81  99  82 /   0   0   0   5   5
Waco                79  98  77  97  78 /   0   0   0   5   0
Paris               78  95  78  95  76 /   0   0   0  20  10
Denton              79  99  79 100  78 /   0   0   0   5   5
McKinney            79  98  79  98  78 /   0   0   0  10   5
Dallas              81 100  81  99  81 /   0   0   0   5   5
Terrell             78  97  78  96  78 /   0   0   0  10   5
Corsicana           80  98  78  98  79 /   0   0   0   5   5
Temple              79  98  77  97  77 /   0   0   0   5   0
Mineral Wells       78 100  77  99  78 /   0   0   0   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ091>094-
102>105-117>121-131>134.

Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ095-100-101-106-107-
115-116-122-123-129-130-135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

$$