203
FXUS64 KFWD 290541
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1241 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Sunday/

As high pressure remains the dominant feature, another hot day is
expected across our region. All of North and Central Texas is now
under a Heat Advisory or an Excessive Heat Warning, with the
hottest and most dangerous conditions expected within the
Excessive Heat Warning.

Temperatures this afternoon will climb into the mid 90s to around
102 with heat index values topping out closer to 112. Caution
should be taken if you are planning on spending time outdoors
today. Those who are most at risk will be the heat-sensitive
groups as well as those who will be actively exposed to the sun
for a long duration of time. Remember to stay hydrated, seek a
cool place to take a break from the heat as well as wear light-
colored clothing!

Tonight, temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 70s across
the region. The urban heat island effect will keep temperatures in
the 80s within the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex.

A stalled weak front across Oklahoma will likely lead to a few
showers and storms well north of our region, with a few boundaries
likely pushing closer to the Red River late in the afternoon.
Although convection will likely be limited by the subsident air
aloft, an isolated shower or storm cannot be ruled out mainly
across far northeast TX. Temperatures tomorrow are likely to be
1-2 degrees cooler compared to today with heat index values mostly
below 108 degrees. The Excessive Heat Warning is unlikely to
continue into Sunday, however, the Heat Advisory may be extended
for parts of our region for tomorrow afternoon.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 211 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024/
Update:

No major changes were made with the latest long term
forecast. Hot and dry conditions will prevail across North and
Central Texas through next week, with heat indices ranging between
105 to 110. Low storm chances remain for our northeastern
counties. It is totally possible that rain chances will be pulled
out completely by Sunday as it seems increasingly likely that the
associated surface boundary will stall north of us in Oklahoma.

Reeves

Previous Discussion:
/Saturday Night Through Next Week/

The ongoing summer heat will be the main headline in the extended
period, with rain chances remaining near zero through next week.
The only exception to this will be on Sunday as showers and storms
develop near a weak front in Oklahoma. Some of this activity may
skirt areas near the Red River, but this will largely depend on
how far south the front ends up stalling. Otherwise, rain-free
weather is expected, with daily temperatures ranging from the mid
90s to near 104 degrees. Warm and muggy mornings in the mid 70s
to low 80s will continue. Fortunately, slightly lower humidity
should keep heat index values a bit lower than we`re currently
seeing. However, we`ll still meet Heat Advisory criteria across
most of the area each day, so a daily extension of the ongoing
advisory can be expected for the next week.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06Z TAFs/

VFR and southerly winds are ongoing at this time but this will be
changing as we get closer to sunrise. Southerly low-level winds
will help draw a plume of stratus northward, impacting KACT first,
then all of the DFW TAF sites. Intermittent MVFR is expected
between 11-14Z at KACT and 13-15Z across North Texas.

The low ceilings will improve during the late morning hours,
leaving behind VFR with continued southerly winds generally below
15 knots.

Hernandez

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    81  98  82 101  82 /   5   5   5   5   0
Waco                78  97  78  99  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               78  95  76  96  76 /   5  20  10  10   0
Denton              79  99  78 101  80 /   5   5   5   0   0
McKinney            80  98  78  99  80 /   5  10   5   5   0
Dallas              81  99  81 100  82 /   5   5   5   5   0
Terrell             78  96  78  99  78 /   5   5   5   5   0
Corsicana           78  98  79 100  80 /   5   5   5   5   0
Temple              77  97  77  99  77 /   5   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       77  99  78 101  79 /   5   5   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for
TXZ091>094-102>105-117>121-131>134.

Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ095-100-101-106-
107-115-116-122-123-129-130-135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

$$