299
FXUS64 KFWD 230801
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
301 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1232 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024/
/Overnight through Tuesday/

A cold front is moving through North Texas at this hour and is
draped along a line from near Sherman to Dallas to Comanche.
Temperatures behind the front have fallen into the upper 60s
across the northwest with breezy north winds. The front will
continue to make steady southward progress through the night, but
will slow down early Monday morning as the main shortwave pulls
off to the northeast. We`ll remain beneath larger scale broad
troughing throughout the Southern Plains today which will keep at
least some weak forcing for ascent in place. Widespread showers
and a few thunderstorms are currently ongoing behind the front in
response to modest isentropic ascent. This will begin to wane as
we head into the mid morning hours on Monday. For the rest of the
overnight period, we`ll continue to have high PoPs mainly across
the northwest half of the CWA. Some localized pockets of heavier
rainfall associated with more vigorous convective activity could
produce more than an inch of rain, but most areas will generally
see light totals.

The front should make it into central Texas later today and
despite the better forcing being removed from the area, it should
remain a focus for at least isolated shower and thunderstorm
activity. PoPs will be confined to the frontal zone across our
central TX counties and generally be capped at 20%. Abundant cloud
cover will limit high temperatures to the upper 70s and lower 80s
north of the front while a few locations to the south of the
boundary could push 90 degrees again this afternoon. Clouds will
thin out some tonight with most areas falling into the low/mid
60s.

On Tuesday, the frontal boundary will linger across our Central TX
counties again and should be a focus for at least isolated to
scattered showers and storms through the day. We`ll have PoPs at
20-30% during this time with high temperatures in the 80s.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Wednesday Onward/

Overview...
No major weather impacts are expected during the extended forecast
periods. The mid and late workweek will feature slightly below-
normal temperatures with highs in the 80s and overnight lows in
the 60s (low 50s across North Texas outside of the Metroplex). A
warming trend is expected over the weekend into early next week.
The best chance for rain will be Tuesday night and Wednesday
morning, with lower rain chances returning Friday and Saturday.
Friday and Saturday will also be breezy, but below Wind Advisory
criteria.

Meteorological Discussion...
The cooler weather and relatively quiet pattern later this week
will largely be a result of being under the back side of a stout
upper-level low over the Mississippi Valley. The primary shortwave
trough for this low will move across the region Tuesday night into
Wednesday, developing some showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms
during this time. This trough should move south/east by Wednesday
afternoon, with northerly flow aloft prevailing thereafter.

Normally, that would be the end of the story for this feature and
our attention would shift to what`s coming from the west. However,
the National Hurricane Center is currently forecasting a 90%
chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 7 days with a
disturbance currently in the western Caribbean Sea. Why does this
matter? No, there is not a reasonable threat of landfall to the
Texas Gulf coast, but the consensus in the guidance has the
tropical system moving into Southeastern CONUS, then getting
wrapped into the aforementioned upper-level low. 500 mb progs in
the deterministic--and even the latest mean ensemble--guidance is
indicating a high likelihood of the Fujiwhara effect occurring
over the Central and Eastern CONUS late this week into this
weekend. As this ensues, the upper low should deepen and shift
west, bringing increased rain chances to the area Friday and
Saturday. Also in response to this, a corridor of strong northerly
winds develop across the Central Plains. Only about 10% of the
guidance is suggesting wind speeds at or above our Wind Advisory
criteria, but it should still be a breezy Friday and Saturday.

As far as what happens to the tropical system as it merges into
the parent upper low over the weekend, it should migrate entirely
around the low. As it moves into and through the southwestern
quadrant of the low, it will have the most influence on our local
weather. What that influence will be is still largely TBD, but it
doesn`t look to be overly impactful at this time.

Bonnette

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1232 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024/
/06Z TAFs/

A cold front is moving through North Texas at this hour with
widespread light rainfall and a few embedded thunderstorms mainly
west of the major airports. Rain/storm chances will increase a bit
overnight before the bulk of the activity pulls off to the
northeast through Monday morning. Cigs/vis are VFR now, but
ceiling heights will lower overnight and widespread MVFR is
expected by morning with at least some potential for IFR cigs
after sunrise. Conditions will improve through the day as
precipitation ends and ceiling heights lift. North-northwest winds
will prevail around 10 kt with a more westerly direction expected
overnight tonight.

Dunn

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    67  87  66  82  62 /  20  20  40  10   5
Waco                69  88  65  84  61 /  30  30  30  20   0
Paris               62  86  63  81  59 /   5  10  40  20  10
Denton              62  88  63  83  59 /  10  20  50  10   5
McKinney            63  88  64  83  59 /  10  10  40  20   5
Dallas              67  88  66  85  62 /  20  20  40  10   5
Terrell             65  88  64  83  60 /  20  20  30  20   5
Corsicana           70  89  66  85  61 /  20  30  30  20   5
Temple              69  90  66  85  60 /  30  30  30  20   0
Mineral Wells       62  88  63  83  57 /  20  20  50  20   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$