112
FXUS64 KFWD 021632
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1132 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/This afternoon through Wednesday/

Excessive heat and humidity will remain through mid-week with
strong ridging aloft, plenty of sun, and a constant supply of
Gulf moisture. Afternoon temperatures will hover around 100
degrees with the hottest temperatures in the west and the highest
humidity in the east. Afternoon heat index values will reach
between 105 and 110 overall, but some locations in the east could
exceed 110 briefly this afternoon. We will maintain the Excessive
Heat Warning in the east with a Heat Advisory for most other
locations through the afternoon. We will wait for the late
afternoon forecast issuance to extend/change any heat products for
tomorrow. New guidance coming in suggests that afternoon heat
index values will be below 110 in nearly all locations, so we may
not need to extend the Excessive Heat Warning, but we will need a
Heat Advisory for most of the forecast area.

Subsidence under the ridge should suppress all convection, but a
few storms may move up from South Texas on the sea breeze
Wednesday afternoon and approach the far southeast zones.

79

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 321 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024/
Update:
The aforementioned mid-level ridge will maintain the status quo
through Thursday/Independence Day before a pattern change occurs
and introduces the prospect of near normal temperatures and
measurable rainfall Friday and Saturday. To put this week`s heat
into climatological context, Thursdays high temperatures are
poised to tie the record for the 3rd hottest July 4th at DFW.
Additionally, we are on track to threaten daily high minimum
temperature records through the end of the week.

A cold front will push into Oklahoma on Thursday afternoon
reaching central Oklahoma by Thursday evening. Though this surface
boundary will serve as a focus for shower and thunderstorm
development, this activity is not expected to impact 4th of July
celebrations south of the Red River until after midnight. Overall,
the forecast trends discussed below remain on track, therefore no
significant changes were made to the previous forecast with this
update.

12

Previous Discussion:
/Wednesday and Beyond/

North and Central Texas will remain under the influence of a stout
upper ridge through the middle portions of this week keeping
mostly sunny, hot, and dry weather through the 4th of July
holiday. Expect afternoon highs in the mid-90s to lower 100s both
Wednesday and Thursday with heat index values peaking in the
103-108 degree range. Most of our area will likely need extensions
to current heat headlines. Therefore, continue to take the
necessary precautions to avoid heat-related illnesses, especially
if you plan on being outside for extended periods time on the 4th.
Drink plenty of water, take a dip in the pool or a break in the
A/C, and wear light-colored clothing!

A notable change in the weather pattern is expected to take place
in the late Thursday-Friday time frame. Troughing over the
Central Plains will help send a weak cold front toward North Texas
Thursday night into Friday morning. This slow, southward-moving frontal
boundary will serve as a focus for isolated to scattered
thunderstorm development through the latter half of Saturday. Most
likely rain amounts look to remain generally in the 0.2-0.5"
range with isolated totals upward of an inch. This frontal
boundary and increase in cloudiness will also bring about a mid-
summer "cooldown" for at least the first half of the weekend.
Afternoon temperatures will drop down into the low to mid-90s
(possibly even upper 80s) for much of the region Friday and
Saturday.

Beyond Saturday, the continuing weather pattern is a bit of a
toss-up. Just over half of the EPS/GEFS/GEPS ensemble members keep
an active weather pattern over the Central US with strong ridging
placed over the Western CONUS. The other half attempts to build a
ridge back over the state of Texas, keeping rain chances on the
lower end. We will also be monitoring Hurricane Beryl as it
crosses the Yucatan Peninsula this weekend. The vast majority of
guidance currently keeps a Gulf of Mexico landfall down in Mexico
with impacts to North and Central Texas unlikely. Continue to
monitor for updates over the next several days now that we have
weather other than just hot and dry in the forecast!

Langfeld

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

...VFR and south flow...

No aviation weather concerns are expected in and around the TAF
sites through Wednesday afternoon with only a few daytime Cu and
some passing high clouds.

A south wind will prevail in the 6 to 11 knot range along with
some daytime gusts near 20 knots.

79

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth   101  82 100  82 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco               100  79  99  78  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               98  79  98  79  97 /   5   5   0   0   0
Denton             102  80 101  81 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney           101  81  99  81  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas             101  83 100  82 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             99  79  98  78  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana          101  80  99  79  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple             101  77  99  78  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells      102  78 102  78 101 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>093-100>104-
115>120-131>134-144>147-158>162-174-175.

Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening
for TXZ094-095-105>107-121>123-135-148.

&&

$$