Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
721 FXUS65 KGGW 022031 AFDGGW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Glasgow MT 231 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: 1) Unsettled weather conditions are expected at times this week with frequent chances for thunderstorms. The steadiest and most widespread rainfall will be Wednesday into Thursday. 2) Upper ridging is expected to guide hot and dry weather conditions across the region next week. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: An upper level low will continue to the east while NE Montana remains situated under the influence of upper level northwest flow. Expect daily chances for thunderstorms this week, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. Over the short term, while CAPE over the area indicates some instability, a low shear environment will make conditions unfavorable for any sustained updraft. Thus, ordinary cell convection and a general thunderstorm regime are supported. Ensembles show growing support for a large upper level ridge developing over the western CONUS Next week. This will lead to dry and hot weather conditions for the middle of July. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: While confidence is low on precise timing and placement of any thunderstorms, confidence is high on an overall active weather pattern remaining in place this week with growing confidence on hot and dry weather next week. NBM was largely followed which captured expected trends rather well. && .AVIATION... While VFR conditions are expected much of the time tonight, expect scattered showers and thunderstorms through this evening. These storms may be accompanied by MVFR ceilings and IFR visibilities. Winds will be west at 10 to 20 kts, diminishing to under 10 kts after 06z. Gusty and shifting winds are possible near any storms. && .GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow