Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
609 FXUS65 KGGW 252018 AFDGGW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Glasgow MT 218 PM MDT Tue Jun 25 2024 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: 1) Warm and dry weather look to continue through Wednesday. 2) A strong cold front will push through the region on Thursday with growing support for severe weather across NE Montana Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Upper ridging will prevail through Wednesday with warm and dry weather. As the ridge axis slides east and an upper low moves in from the west along with a surface cold front. This will turn the upper flow more southwesterly. NBM guidance shows surface dew points rising into the 60s Thursday afternoon with increasing low level southeast flow. The mean surface based CAPE over eastern portions of the CWA looks to reach 2000 J/KG or better by Thursday afternoon and evening while forecast soundings show 40-50 kts of 0-6 km shear present. This will all set the stage for the return of active severe weather across NE Montana, especially during afternoon and evening hours. Cooler weather is expected for Friday and Saturday behind the cold front, but lingering instability may provide support for isolated showers and thunderstorms at times. Longer term, ensembles point to a ridge pattern developing over the weekend and another round of active weather early next week as the next trough approaches. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: The forecast followed NBM with little in the way of deviations made at this time. As Thursday enters the near term, mesoscale detail may allow for a more refined forecast than what consensus blends might offer. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected to continue tonight into Wednesday with high pressure over the region. Chances for precipitation will increase Wednesday night into Thursday. && .GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow